Election

Future historians, psephologists, and political analysts, searching for the day and time that Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign imploded beyond recovery, are likely to settle on Thursday May 23, 2024, at approximately 7 p.m. It was then that Trump’s surprising rally in Crotona Park in the South Bronx really got underway. I didn’t hear any actual bells tolling, but if you listened carefully you could discern the mournful obligato that signaled the end of Joe Biden’s hopes in New York — and therefore the country. No Republican has taken New York since Ronald Reagan’s great landslide in 1984. Why then would Trump waste time coming to the South Bronx? Because, to adapt Bob Dylan, "The Times They Are A Changin’." Joe Biden won New York in 2020 by twenty-three points.

Ideally, responsible citizens would think big when deciding on a presidential candidate. But the election outcome may just be determined by one factor: gas prices.  In a CNN article this week, economist Mark Zandi asserted that gas prices were likely to determine election results. On Tuesday, Biden announced his release of a million barrels of reserve gasoline. Even with the many factors that affect oil prices, it may be possible to predict where prices will be come November and if that can tell us who will win the presidency. Zandi and his colleagues from Moody’s Analytics (Brendan Lacerda and Justin Begley) published a nineteen-page econometric analysis in January.

Who has a better chance of passing a drug test, Joe Biden or Hunter? At this point, Cockburn thinks it's probably a coin toss. What he’d rather know is what the president is doped up on in his more energetic moments. Thanks to an online betting platform, voters can now gamble on which drug they think Biden is using.   “BetOnline.ag, which infamously set odds on who the White House cocaine belonged to, has created a wagering market for which drug Biden will test positive for,” Josh Barton, a BetOnline rep, told Cockburn. So far, the odds favor amphetamine followed by methamphetamine. Bettors think Biden is poppin' more Adderall than a college student during finals week.

It’s happening. Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump will debate. Of course, the Biden team is making sure the debates are dominated by the left-wing media and held in studios with no citizens present. Given this surprisingly undemocratic arrangement, it occurred to me it might be useful to look at the most famous candidate debates in American history. In 1858, while running for the US Senate in Illinois, incumbent Senator Stephen A. Douglas agreed to debate his opponent, Abraham Lincoln, seven times — once in each congressional district in which they had not yet spoken. Douglas was frustrated. Lincoln had spoken in Springfield and Chicago one day after Douglas and just torn apart all of Douglas’s arguments leaving him with no chance to respond.

What began on Wednesday morning as a cringy campaign video has resulted in an official debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Both candidates have agreed to appear in a June 27 debate hosted by CNN and a second on September 10 hosted by ABC. The announcements came after Biden said on Wednesday that he will not participate in debates hosted by the Commission on Presidential Debates and instead proposed face-offs with Trump in June and September moderated by news organizations. Hours later, Biden accepted an offer from CNN to host the first debate. “Donald Trump lost two debates to me in 2020. Since then, he hasn’t shown up for a debate. Now he’s acting like he wants to debate me again,” Biden bragged in a video posted to X.

President Biden just made a strong move against Israel, ordering the US government to stop shipping weapons supplies to the Israeli Defense Forces. It was his fine strategic mind at work, once again.  Usually the public defers to the president and his advisors on foreign policy, unless the issues become very prominent or the president forfeits their trust. Those are the two problems now facing the Biden administration. The war in Gaza is a major issue — and the public has zero confidence in Joe’s strategic wisdom. He lost the public’s confidence on that score after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and the failed attempts to appease Iran. Now, they are unlikely to defer to his judgment in distancing himself from Israel, America’s greatest ally in the region.

Like many commentators who have struggled to understand the reasons for the inveterate hatred of Donald Trump among the swank people who actually run the country, I have generally come up with two answers. The first is aesthetic.  Trump does not look like, act like or talk like a typical politician. He has a funny hairdo, seems to have a fake tan and his taste in clothes and food are infra dignitatem. He consorts with people who organize fights and other riff-raff. Ronald Reagan was a movie actor, something for which he was mercilessly pilloried by the New Yorker-New York Times set in the run-up to and throughout his presidency. But Donald Trump hosted a demotic reality TV show, which was even worse.

The Donald Trump campaign is not an organized effort with which I typically agree or endorse, but their latest statement, put out in response to a position taken by the Commission on Presidential Debates, isn't just on point — it's essential to understanding the reason Americans distrust our government and process. Let's rewind for a second. In 2020, the Commission on Presidential Debates (average age: recently deceased) engaged in one of the most public displays of misinformation, obfuscation and lying that we have ever seen in the context of an election. When then C-SPAN host Steve Scully was caught tweeting blatantly inappropriate question gathering to Anthony Scaramucci days before a debate he was supposed to moderate, the CPD went into full protection mode.

The betting market often provides different insights from traditional polling. While most polls presently have Donald Trump with a slight lead over Joe Biden, election betting tells a different story.  After months floundering, Biden is now the best bet for the 2024 election, according to data from OddsChecker, a British company that compares odds in everything from esports to American politics. OddsChecker has Biden winning the election, marking the first time since September 2023 that he has surpassed Trump: according to the website, Biden now stands a 46 percent chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 43.8 percent. The website also has Michelle Obama currently beating RFK Jr. for third place.

The Arizona Supreme Court ruling that upheld an abortion ban from 1864 had Democratic campaign managers practically breaking out their tap shoes. In between the breathless rants about how “women will die” because of the ruling (that Arizona’s attorney general immediately announced she would not enforce), the opportunists of the left couldn’t hide their true ambition. John Heilemann told the nodding eggheads at Morning Joe that the “political effect” of the ruling “could not be better for Joe Biden.” And there it is: Democrats are far less concerned with an archaic abortion ban and far more concerned with changing the political winds for their floundering incumbent. Can you blame them?

Donald Trump’s decision to weigh in on the abortion issue again at this juncture, with his most definitive statement yet that he opposes a fifteen-week federal ban favored by some Republicans, is a political mistake for several reasons. As wise as his transactional embrace of pro-life voters was in 2016 — ultimately proving the difference between his historic win and what the media and many establishment Republicans widely expected to be an ignominious loss — his statement this morning is a misstep which could ultimately undermine his attempt to return to the White House, and therefore for the pro-life movement’s ability to craft policy going forward.

There’s something in the water in New York’s 3rd district, which continues to pump out interesting candidates for Congress. Of course, we had George Santos. Enough said there. Then after the colorful Santos was expelled from Congress in a historic vote, Republicans nominated Mazi Pilip, an IDF veteran and Ethiopian immigrant, who lost in a special election to Democrat Tom Suozzi, who is... vastly less interesting than his GOP counterparts. But now, Suozzi could face another colorful Republican — Bill Cotter, formerly known as Barstool Sports’s Billy Football, who joined the race a few weeks ago, and has been gathering the requisite number of signatures to appear on the primary ballot in June.

NBC News’s decision to ditch Ronna McDaniel after the hissy fit thrown collectively by Chuck Todd, Joe Scarborough, Jen Psaki, Nicolle Wallace, Rachel Maddow and more should be more than enough evidence to support a commitment from the Republican National Committee and its new leadership: there is no working with NBC. Not on debates, not on town halls, not even on campaign season interviews. There’s no point in creating content for a network that finds even the most generic Republican figure so vile and scary that they don’t even want her in the building. Obviously this is an unenforceable commitment, and someone like Chris Christie or Larry Hogan will assuredly ignore it.

President Joe Biden is the presumptive presidential nominee for the Democratic Party after his victory in the Georgia primary pushed him passed the threshold of 1,968 delegates. Donald Trump also passed the threshold of 1,215 delegates to become the presumptive nominee for the Republican Party, following his triumphs in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington. "It is my great honor to be representing the Republican Party as its Presidential Nominee," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Our Party is UNITED and STRONG, and fully understands that we are running against the Worst, Most Incompetent, Corrupt, and Destructive President in the History of the United States. Millions of people are invading our Country, many from prisons and mental institutions of other Countries.

President Joe Biden has shamelessly abandoned his chief campaign promise to unite the country. It became clear quickly into his presidency that this was a false promise as he railed against “extreme MAGA Republicans” and painted them a threat to democracy. The trend continued during Thursday night’s State of the Union address, as with each issue he brought up, he made sure to throw a jab at his “predecessor” and Republicans. On a recent Alabama Supreme Court ruling that said an embryo is a human life for the purposes of families having recourse when embryos are destroyed by fertility clinics, he pointedly asked the GOP side of the aisle which “freedoms” they intend to take away next.