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Donald Trump has got what he wanted

Donald Trump has peered into the abyss. The US President watched the Wall Street meltdown and the global trading system (from which America benefits as much as anyone) start to collapse, and he hit pause. The conventional narrative will be that Trump has blinked, but I think he simply got what he wanted. Yesterday’s decision to put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, while increasing the rate on China to 125 per cent, has certainly come as a relief to the markets. The S&P500 was up almost 9 per cent on the news. Investors can breathe again. It would be easy to argue that President Trump has simply chickened out

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

What’s the point of foreign aid?

The UK signed up to a UN target of spending 0.7 per cent of GNP on aid way back in 1970, but didn’t hit that level until 2013. In 2020, aid spending was cut to 0.5 per cent and last week Keir Starmer reduced it further to 0.3 per cent. This will save about £4 billion which will instead be allocated to military spending. There were predictable howls of anguish from aid advocates at the news, and the development minister resigned. There was also begrudging praise from Starmer’s Conservative opponents. But few seemed to question what the point of aid is, and whether a spending target, at any level, makes

Why John Lewis’s profits have soared

Growth has ground to a halt, manufacturing is collapsing, and the government is desperately scratching around for ways to save some money so it can balance the books. There is not much to make anyone feel optimistic about the state of the British economy right now. Except, that is, for the healthy performance of the UK’s traditional, mid-market retailers. Marks & Spencer and Tesco are both in rude health. Now, John Lewis, which has reported a rise in pre-tax profits of 73 per cent to £97 million, is the latest retailer to demonstrate its ability to bounce back.  After years of steep losses under the hapless leadership of the former

Ross Clark

The Tories should have scrapped NHS England

Listening to Keir Starmer announce this morning that he is going to abolish NHS England can only make the Conservatives wonder at what might have been. It should have been a Conservative prime minister making this sort of speech, declaring the civil service to be ‘flabby’ and cutting out masses of duplication in public administration.     Indeed, the Conservatives made a good start in increasing the efficiency of public services when they returned to office in coalition with the Lib Dems in 2010. Civil service numbers were cut by more than a fifth, from 492,000 in 2010 to 384,000 in 2016. But then something went desperately wrong, and Whitehall was allowed

Martin Vander Weyer

Don’t touch Boots!

‘Don’t stress over short-term stock market swings’ is a maxim on which Donald Trump and I might agree, even if he is keen to take credit for upward rallies. The shakedown of the past few days is a natural reaction to the wild six-week ride of Trump’s tariff and foreign policy gambits and the realisation that if he keeps it up, he’s far more likely to harm the US economy than boost it. But with a mad king surrounded by madder courtiers anything can happen, including ever more eccentric reversals. So watch the White House tragicomedy but don’t get hung up on the Dow Jones index. But having said that,

Trump’s Tesla stunt won’t help Musk

Tesla’s share price has halved, sales have slumped, boycotts are being organised and Chinese rivals are ready to steal the market. It has been a rough few weeks for the electric vehicle manufacturer, but Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk has been handed a lifeline by Donald Trump: the US president gave his full-backing to the company by buying one of its cars. Heck, he might even have used his own money. There is just one snag: Trump’s high-profile support will make things worse for Tesla, not better. Outside the White House yesterday, Trump chose from five shiny new Teslas. A day earlier, Trump had posted on his Truth Social feed that

Ross Clark

Who becomes a Labour politician to slash benefits?

If you are an idler sponging off the state, you have every excuse to feel cheated. Throughout his years in opposition, Keir Starmer gave you every impression that he was on your side. During his Labour leadership election campaign in 2020, he promised to end Universal Credit and replace it with something more generous. In 2021, when Boris Johnson’s government proposed to remove the £20-a-week uplift in benefits, which it had introduced at the beginning of the pandemic, Starmer called a vote to oppose the move, accusing the then government of ‘effectively turning on the poorest in our society’. Shortly before last year’s general election, he agreed with the Big

Michael Simmons

Who’s doing well out of the Trump slump?

Markets are not enjoying Donald Trump’s tariffs. Some 125 days have passed since his second election victory and the S&P 500 is on a clear downward trajectory thanks to Trump’s tariff policies and other poor US economic data. After the same number of days following Biden’s election, the S&P was up 13 per cent; for Obama’s second term it was up nine per cent; and at the same point in Trump’s first presidency it was up 11 per cent. For Trump 2.0 it’s down 3 per cent from election day. Trump has summoned Wall Street bosses to the White House in an attempt to calm nerves, but while US equities

Does Trump want a stock market crash?

There ‘could be a recession’, said President Trump over the weekend with the kind of nonchalant shrug that suggested he was not too bothered one way or the other. He was even going to buy a Tesla to help out his ‘first buddy’ Elon Musk as the company’s share price collapsed. The markets had assumed there was a ‘Trump put’ – that is the President would always ride to the rescue to keep the bull market running. But there is no sign of it. Instead Trump seems perfectly relaxed about the huge losses, even encouraging the sell-off. Of course, it might just that he does not know what to do.

The Wall Street plunge isn’t over yet

The plunge continues. It’s always a mug’s game trying to call the top of any market, but the plunge on Wall Street does feel as though it has got legs, so it is quite possible that we have indeed seen the peak for US equities.  Since last week the Nasdaq has moved into correction territory – jargon for a 10 per cent or more fall – and on Monday was off another 3 per cent. I rather like the expression ‘correction’ because it implies that the markets have simply made a bit of an error, a ‘terribly sorry, folks, but we all make mistakes, and give us a few weeks

Michael Simmons

Will Trump cause a recession?

Donald Trump has refused to rule out an American recession. He ‘hates to predict things like this’, he said yesterday. When asked if a downturn was coming this year, the President responded that a ‘period of transition’ was on the cards. On Thursday last week the Atlanta Fed’s GDP ‘nowcast’ model was forecasting that America’s economy would shrink by 2.4 per cent in the first quarter of this year – a slight improvement on the 2.8 per cent contraction it had predicted three days earlier. If this reading for the first three months of 2025 proves to be true, and things don’t pick up shortly, could the USA be heading

Are the markets turning on Trump?

China does not like tariffs, but big money in America likes them even less. If one thing has become clear amid the fog of the past week, it is that what will contain Donald Trump are the financial markets. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, attacked Trump on Friday for his imposition of tariffs, adding that major powers ‘should not bully the weak’. While people in Taiwan might find that latter comment a bit rich, his line on tariffs squares with the reaction on Wall Street. The markets do not like it. This week has seen the Nasdaq Composite index of high-technology companies move into a ‘correction’ – a 10 per

Could spending cuts herald a ‘winter of discontent for Labour’s left’?

15 min listen

With reports of ‘billions’ of spending cuts earmarked for the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, taking place later this month, Michael Gove and Kate Andrews join Katy Balls to discuss what exactly Rachel Reeves could cut. With little fiscal headroom and sluggish forecasts of growth, Reeves doesn’t appear to have many options. It’s likely that welfare will be targeted, and there are reports that Labour’s opposition to new North Sea oil & gas licences may be relaxed to stimulate growth. One area that appears off the table is defence – following the Prime Minister’s pledge to cut international aid in order to fund new defence spending.  But if all these reports are

Ross Clark

Why is the UK economy stalling?

Giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee this afternoon, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey doubled down on a point he has previously made to the committee: the economy is being pulled down by an extraordinary fall in productivity in the public sector. Relative to 2019, he said, productivity across the public sector is now 8 to 9 per cent lower. In the health sector, it is 17 to 18 per cent lower. In what he described as a ‘back of the envelope calculation’ the overall effect has been to reduce GDP by between 1 and 3 per cent. Last year, Bailey added, something extremely unusual happened: UK productivity fell

Europe could pay the price for Germany’s debt shake-up

Germany has finally decided to join the party – but Europe may come to regret it. After two decades of limited borrowing and fiscal restraint, Europe’s biggest economy is finally joining the high-debt club. Incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz will borrow €800 billion (£670 million), and perhaps much more, to pay for extra spending on defence and infrastructure. Sure, Germany needs to spend more on its armed forces and on restructuring its economy. But it will also likely mean the euro-zone no longer has a single solvent member to anchor it. It is hard to see how this situation will end well for Europe. Merz is a centre-right, pro-business leader, but

Ross Clark

Angela Rayner is exercising her ‘right to switch off’ Britain’s growth

It was reported over the weekend that the government has dropped ‘the right to switch off’ from its Employment Rights Bill. Such a right, it has been widely asserted, had appeared in Labour’s manifesto for last year’s general election, promising that employees would be granted a legal right to ignore their boss’s emails outside their contracted working hours. However, it was left out of the bill as originally published last autumn, and neither has it been introduced as an amendment. But it seems that we were not really paying attention. It is true that Angela Rayner, in an interview with the Financial Times in May, made the suggestion that the

The fatal flaws in Trump’s crypto reserve plan

President Trump was very bullish about his decision over the weekend to create a ‘crypto reserve’. It will legitimise crypto currencies, he said. It will turn the United States into the global hub for trade. And it will build the national wealth. In effect, the American government will build up a stock of Bitcoin and other digital currencies, much like the gold held in Fort Knox. But Trump’s promise is too good to be true: it is a dangerous scam. Trump’s crypto reserve will be wide open to market manipulation by the tech tycoons around him ‘I will make sure the US is the Crypto Capital of the World,’ Trump

Will Labour MPs scupper a US-UK trade deal?

A UK-US trade deal is on the table. On a surprisingly successful trip to Washington, US President Donald Trump made it clear to the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer that a trade agreement with the United States was close. “We could very well end up with a real trade deal where the tariffs won’t be necessary,” Trump said after his meeting with the British delegation. “We’ll see.” Britain’s dire economic performance means that the UK is hardly in a position to turn down a deal With our economy in dire trouble, Britain needs this agreement more than ever. There is just one problem: Sir Keir will have to take on

Michael Simmons

The problem of Britain’s idle generation

The number of young people not doing anything with their lives has hit its highest level in 11 years. Figures released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training – so-called NEETs – show that the number has reached just under one million in the last three months of 2024. Standing at 987,000, the number of NEETs is up by 110,000 since the end of 2023 – equivalent to a town the size of Oldham. The new data means that nearly one in seven Britons aged 16 to 24 are not in education, employment or training. The figures are

Will Trump’s ‘golden visas’ threaten Rachel Reeves’s tax plans?

Fed up with Rachel Reeves’s tax rises, with the calls for wealth and mansion taxes, and the loss of non-dom status? For $5 million (£3.95 million), there is now a very easy escape route. President Trump has just announced a ‘golden visa scheme’, allowing investors an easy path to American citizenship. That is aimed at attracting global entrepreneurs to the US. But it could also pose a real threat to the British economy. The UK depends on a small group of taxpayers to keep its huge state machine financed It is certainly a dramatic move. Golden visas that allow citizenship in return for investment have traditionally been restricted to a

Michael Simmons

The energy price cap rise heaps more misery on Brits

Average gas and electricity bills will rise by £111 a year in April after the regulator Ofgem announced an increase to the energy price cap. The 6.4 per cent hike means the average dual-fuel household bill will hit £1,849 annually. The rise is more than anticipated, with analysts at Cornwall Insight predicting that bills would rise by just 5 per cent in April. Ofgem blamed inflation and ‘rising global wholesale prices’ for the bigger-than-expected increase. As a result, the cap will be £159 (nearly 10 per cent) higher than for the April to June period last year. The rise in energy prices is why the Bank of England recently forecast