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Ross Clark

Britain is addicted to spending beyond its means

Imagine what the government could do with an extra £9.1 billion a month. It could build HS2 in its entirety within the space of a year. Or better still, it could double the defence budget and still have some money left over to build the 40 new hospitals which the Conservatives promised – as well as a few schools, too.  That sum – £9.1 billion – is what the government paid in debt interest in October alone, according to the figures on public finances released by the Office for National Statistics this morning. Overall, it was forced to borrow £17.4 billion over the course of the month – only just

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

Steerpike

Revealed: Reeves’s tax rises expose Labour’s misleading manifesto claims

Casting his mind back to the election, Mr S recalls a heated debate about which party would raise taxes most. In the final televised debate before the national poll, Sir Keir Starmer was quick to accuse then-PM Rishi Sunak of ‘repeating a lie’ – that Labour were going to raise taxes by £2,000 per person. And, to be fair, he had a point: on Sunak’s own maths the Tories would have raised taxes by, er, £3,000 per person. Awkward… Mr S’s friends at The Spectator’s DataHub have crunched all the manifestos put out at the time to see just who really would be responsible for the greatest tax hikes – with

Why India’s super-rich are snapping up Rolexes

Here’s a question: what do crazy rich Indians want more than anything? The answer appears to be luxury watches, and the more the merrier. From January to July of this year, Swiss watch exports to India were up 20 per cent compared with the same period in 2023, and up more than 41 per cent compared with the same period in 2022, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. The growing demand from the super-rich is set to soon make India one of the international watch industry’s top export markets.  The luxury watch market is very much about the exclusivity and social cachet it brings India’s economy is

Labour’s worker’s rights bill is more of a slow burner

Labour’s long-promised Employment Rights Bill may not be quite as immediately game-changing as the trade unions hoped or the business lobby feared. There will be implementation delays, with most elements not operative until 2026 – unsurprising given the expected complexity of the legislation. Further consultation will be needed before more detailed regulations are tabled. But that’s not to say that, when Angela Rayner’s new workers’ legislation does kick in, all will be business as usual. The likely creation of a nine-month probationary period for new employees – which would mitigate the effects of scrapping the two-year wait for unfair dismissal law to kick in – may assuage some of the

Britain could pay a heavy price if it fails to crackdown on Chinese EVs

The European Union has joined the United States and Canada in slapping tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs). It’s a rare moment of transatlantic unity – but where does it leave Britain? For now, the UK remains the awkward man in the room. It is the only G7 country not to have imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs (or, in the case of Japan, which already has arduous non-tariff barriers to deter foreign automotive companies from entering its markets.)  The European Commission has made it plain that they see Chinese EVs as an economic threat Many will rightly question the silence from Whitehall. The UK’s omission from a coordinated attempt to stem China’s

Kate Andrews

Labour must tread carefully to avoid killing off Britain’s growth

Happy Friday: the economy is growing. After two consecutive months of no growth, GDP picked up in August, rising by 0.2 per cent. Production and construction output finally turned around, growing 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively, after contracting in July by 0.7 per cent and 0.4 per cent. Services output grew by 0.1 per cent, with the biggest contributions in the three months to August coming from professional, scientific and technical activities and from information and communication sectors.  Despite growth forecasts being revised upwards throughout the year, the news today is welcome relief for those who started to fear that growth in the UK had flatlined. Still,

Matthew Lynn

Rachel Reeves’ Budget is falling apart

It could be 30 per cent. Or 35 per cent? Or perhaps 39 per cent? Heck, who knows, if Rachel Reeves wants to keep the accountants on their toes, perhaps 39.657 per cent. The Treasury is, according to the latest leaks to the Guardian, looking at an increase in Capital Gains Tax as it scrabbles around for tax rises to fund the Chancellor’s spending plans, while not putting up the amount ordinary people are paying. The trouble is, whatever number she picks it is not going to work – and Rachel Reeves is fast gaining a reputation as a shambolic Chancellor. The list of failed tax rises from the new government

Kate Andrews

The ‘Green Budget’ could leave Rachel Reeves red-faced

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has published its yearly Green Budget, weeks ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s first fiscal event. It’s grim reading, for both the government and the public. For Labour to make good on its promise to avoid ‘austerity’, taxes are going to need to go up significantly: by £25 billion, the IFS reports, and that’s just to ‘keep spending rising with national income.’ That’s before the government tackles its pledges to invest. And that doesn’t rule out that ‘further tax rises or spending cuts could be required before the end of the parliament’. Despite speculation that Reeves is changing the fiscal rules to enable her Treasury to borrow

What’s the problem with zero-hour contracts?

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner is set to unveil her workers’ rights bill this week – and ‘exploitative’ zero-hour contracts are in the firing line. But has Labour actually stopped to ask workers what they think? They might be surprised by what they hear: a survey of over 1,000 young people has found that an overwhelming majority (75 per cent) of those in precarious work were satisfied with their working conditions while only 24 per cent were not. It sounds counter-intuitive; happy with no job security, low status work, shifts cancelled at short notice? Satisfied with lower wages and significantly higher turnover rates? And yet young people do seem keen on these roles:

Kate Andrews

Is Labour about to go on a borrowing spree?

At Prime Minister’s Questions this afternoon, Rishi Sunak took a technical turn. Why is Rachel Reeves considering changing the fiscal rules, he asked the Prime Minister, when just last year she said doing so would be ‘tantamount to fiddling the figures.’ No clear answer followed.  The wisdom during the general election was that borrowing more money – to finance Labour or Tory spending promises – was simply not an option. No one dared to propose anything resembling Liz Truss’s mini-budget saga, which saw her attempt to borrow £100 billion to limit energy price rises for consumers.  Instead, the parties said they would make good on their spending promises by going

Martin Vander Weyer

Where are all my after-dinner speaking gigs?

How excited are you to hear the Prime Minister talking tech with Eric Schmidt, an American billionaire who used to run Google? Me neither. But their on-stage conversation is billed as the highlight of the government’s International Investment Summit in London next week, designed to show the world the UK is ‘open for business’. What with Downing Street looking like Game of Thrones after the Red Wedding massacre, and both Angela Rayner’s Employment Rights Bill and Rachel Reeves’s tax-grab Budget looming, the timing of this summit could hardly be worse. A month ago there were rumours it was in disarray, with doubts whether it could attract a quorum of global

Matthew Lynn

Are bankers still welcome in Paris?

In the wake of the UK’s departure from the European Union, French president Emmanuel Macron made a big effort to woo London’s bankers and hedge fund managers across the Channel. Macron wanted to use Brexit as an opportunity to turn Paris into the key hub for European finance. Trust me, he told Britain’s bankers: I’m one of you and will look after you. Those who did make the move may now be regretting their decision. France’s credibility as a welcoming place for top earners is on the line France’s prime minister Michel Barnier is pushing through a tough budget after discovering a ‘black hole’ in the finances that might even

Springer Nature, academic publishing, and the battle against Chinese censorship

The business world was thrilled last week as Springer Nature, the academic publishing giant, floated its shares in Germany, which led to the company being valued at £3.8 billion. But profits should not come at the expense of scholarly integrity and Springer Nature’s record of capitulation to Chinese censorship ought to have raised far greater concerns than it has.  In 2018, the New York Times revealed that the publisher, under pressure from the Chinese Communist party (CCP), blocked access to hundreds of articles on its Chinese website. The censored content covered sensitive topics such as Uyghur Rights, Taiwan, Tibet, elite politics, and the genocide occurring in China – subjects which Beijing deems

Ross Clark

Ordering water firms to cut bills is a mistake

Water companies have sweated the assets they were handed upon privatisation in the late 1980s. They have failed to invest properly, and have regarded fines for sewage spills as a business cost, to be balanced against the price of investment, rather than as a deterrent. They have, as Ofwat chief executive David Black told the Today programme this morning, blamed the weather rather than their own failures. Sewage spills more than doubled last year All this is true. Even so, is what the water industry really needs at the moment an order to return £158 million to customers through lower bills in 2025/26? That is what Ofwat has just ordered the

Kate Andrews

Is Labour’s first Budget coming unstuck?

During the general election campaign, Labour played a cautious game on tax: the party was careful not to share its bigger plans for getting more revenue into the Treasury until after the election was over. A few major tax hikes were ruled out – income tax, National Insurance and VAT – but it was quickly realised this meant all other taxes were fair game. Only a handful of relatively small tax hikes were announced in the lead-up to polling day, including putting VAT on private school fees and ending non-dom status.  Reeves must take the OBR’s calculations as gospel The softly-softly strategy seemed to work, at least for getting through

When will Germany’s economy bounce back?

Germany was once the powerhouse of Europe; for decades, its economy has helped drive the continent’s growth. No longer. Berlin’s economy ministry plans to downgrade its growth forecast for this year. The German government now expects the economy to shrink by 0.2 per cent in 2024 – down from a previous estimate of 0.3 per cent growth, Sueddeutsche Zeitung reports. Is this the medicine the German economy needs to get it back on to its feet? Germany appears to be on the brink of a second year in a row in which its economy is going in the wrong direction. German output contracted 0.3 per cent last year and the

Matthew Lynn

It’s too late for tariffs to save British steel

Cheap Chinese imports will flood the market. Even more jobs will be lost, and the country’s industrial base will be even weaker than it already is. UK Steel, the lobby group for the industry, has today called for tariffs to stop the last remaining steel mills being wiped out by unfair competition from lower cost rivals. It would hardly be any great surprise if a protectionist, union-dominated Labour government agreed to that. There is, however, just one snag. The steel industry has already long been neglected – and there is no point in trying to rescue it now. It is futile to provoke Chinese retaliation against industries that actually make

Ross Clark

Ed Miliband’s ‘new era’ for energy policy is anything but

How the ground is shifting now that Labour finds itself in government and is actually responsible for UK energy policy. This morning, workers at a glass factory on Merseyside were treated to an unusual visit from the threesome that is the Prime Minister, Chancellor and Energy Secretary. Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves and Ed Miliband had travelled up to announce the latest twist in the government’s energy policy: a £22 billion investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS). This, apparently, is an inspired policy to create jobs, help us accelerate to net zero and boost our economy. It is also extraordinarily similar to an announcement that the previous government made in

Matthew Lynn

Andrew Bailey should be wary of helping Labour

Business confidence has plummeted back to the levels last seen in the wake of Liz Truss’s unfortunate mini-budget. Hiring has slowed down as employers worry about all the new rights Labour is about to award their staff. Consumer confidence has fallen, as people worry about the tax rises that will be imposed in the ‘Horror Budget’ set for the end of the month. And the economy, which was growing at a decent clip when the Conservatives left office, has now stalled, with zero growth in the latest quarter. The new Chancellor Rachel Reeves was facing a spluttering economy. But, hey, never mind. It turns out that the Bank of England

Martin Vander Weyer

Goodbye to Old King Coal

So farewell, Ratcliffe-on-Soar: the UK’s last coal-fired power station shut down on Monday, having burned five million tonnes of coal per year since it opened in 1968. Back then, 80 per cent of national power came from coal, our primary energy source since the 1880s; at the turn of this century there were still 25 coal plants in operation across the country. Now there are none – and 36 per cent of our power in the past year came from wind, solar and hydro with 7 per cent from biomass, compared with 24 per cent from natural gas and just 1 per cent from Ratcliffe’s coal. That’s a remarkable transition

Isabel Hardman

Jeremy Hunt tells the Tory party some uncomfortable truths

Jeremy Hunt is one of the few Tories willing to take the fight to Labour while the Conservative leadership contest drones on. The shadow chancellor gave an on-stage interview at party conference in Birmingham this morning where he continued to attack Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ ‘£22 billion black hole’ narrative. Hunt suggested that not even Labour MPs and members believed that claim, which was why they were having such a big row over the winter fuel payment. ‘We were trounced at the election,’ Hunt said Hunt also warned that Labour was in danger of making decisions based on its own ‘propaganda’, telling Daniel Finkelstein: ‘My worry is that Labour believes its

Ross Clark

Can anything stop Germany’s decline?

Brexit is, we’re told, a disaster that shaved a hefty slice off UK economic growth. But there does seem to be a very large proverbial elephant standing in the way of this thesis. Our EU neighbours don’t seem to have been doing any better than an admittedly sluggish – if now recovering – Britain. While the UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent in the first quarter of this year followed by 0.5 per cent in the second quarter, the French economy managed only 0.3 per cent and 0.2 per cent. It is Germany that continues to surprise most on the downside. The economy shrank again in the second quarter,