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Northern Ireland is still paying a heavy price for Brexit

This week heralds the arrival in Northern Ireland of yet more overregulation, bureaucratic overreach, and political incompetence. No, Keir Starmer isn’t making an unannounced visit to Belfast. From this month, many thousands of food products imported from Great Britain to Northern Ireland will have to display warnings on their packaging highlighting that these goods are not to be brought into the European Union. The reason why is essentially a bungled Brexit deal for which thousands of business – and millions of customers – will pay the price. It is yet another reason for British firms to stop doing business in Northern Ireland The Windsor Framework – the result of the UK’s

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

Ross Clark

No, Ed Miliband: zonal pricing won’t cut energy bills

Is Ed Miliband going to announce a move towards a zonal electricity market, where wholesale prices would vary between regions of Britain? It would appear to be on cards following the Energy and Climate Secretary’s interview on the Today programme in which he said he was considering the idea. Miliband’s apparent support for the plan follows intense lobbying by Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy as well as support from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the new government-owned company which oversees the grid. However, zonal pricing is bitterly opposed by others in the energy industry, including Chris O’Shea, the generously-moustached CEO of Centrica, and Dale Vince, CEO of Electrocity

Michael Simmons

What’s new in Reeves’s spending review?

When Rachel Reeves last week tried to shift the narrative around her spending review – from one of fiscal restraint to ‘spend, spend, spend’ – she ‘unveiled’ £113 billion in infrastructure investment. But for those in Westminster with more than a short-term memory, they will have felt a distinct sense of déjà vu. That’s because much of what Reeves announced had already appeared on gov.uk more than 18 months ago. These were Conservative plans, shelved for the election, now revived under a different party banner. Last week, Rachel Reeves announced £1.5 billion in funding to improve trams and buses in south Yorkshire. Eighteen months ago, the plans for south Yorkshire stood at

James Heale

Labour try to silence ‘austerity-lite’ accusations

13 min listen

James Nation, formerly a special adviser to Rishi Sunak and now an MD at Forefront Advisers, joins the Spectator’s deputy political editor James Heale and economics editor Michael Simmons, to talk through the latest on the government’s spending review, which is due to be announced on Wednesday. The last holdout appears to be Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, pushing for more police funding. But, against a tough fiscal landscape, what can we expect? And how much does it matter with the wider public? Plus – former chairman Zia Yusuf returned to Reform just two days after resigning, what’s going on? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Will America and China call a truce in their trade war?

High-level talks have started in London today between American and Chinese officials aimed at dialling down the trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world. If they result in a breakthrough, perhaps it will be known as the ‘London accord’. But can President Trump strike a ‘grand bargain’ with China? There is every chance that he might – which would give a huge boost to the global economy. The talks in London follow on from a friendly chat on the phone between President Trump and his counterpart in Beijing, President Xi. Both sides have already stepped back from an all-out trade blockade, with the United States reducing the

From Thatcher to Truss, who’s haunting Mel Stride?

17 min listen

Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride delivered a speech today where he attempted to banish the ghost of Liz Truss and improve the Conservatives’ reputation over fiscal credibility. And he compared leader Kemi Badenoch to Thatcher, saying she too struggled at first and will ‘get better’ at the dispatch box. LBC broadcaster Iain Dale and the Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons join deputy political editor James Heale to unpack Stride’s speech, talk about Labour’s latest policy announcement over free school meals and discuss why both the main parties are struggling with fiscal credibility. Plus, Iain talks about his new book Margaret Thatcher and the myths he seeks to dispel. Why does he

Ross Clark

Could the Winter Fuel Payment fiasco bring down Rachel Reeves?

When the Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that she was withdrawing the Winter Fuel Payment from most pensioners on the same day, last July, when she awarded fat pay rises to many public sector workers she perhaps imagined herself as striking a blow for inter-generational fairness. Working people would get more money – at least if they worked in the public sector – and wealthy retirees a little less. Yet it is fast becoming the an issue which could prove her undoing. The tragedy of the Winter Fuel Payment fiasco is that it leaves the far bigger problem untouched We now learn that the government’s partial U-turn will involve pensioners effectively

Is the London Stock Exchange under threat?

When the fintech giant Wise floated its shares on the London Stock Exchange in 2021 it was widely seen as proof that the City still had a future as a centre for equity trading. This was London’s largest-ever tech listing: it was one of only a handful of new British companies with a global presence and it was hailed as the perfect example of how the London stock market could still be an effective home for growing businesses. Against that backdrop, its decision today to move its primary list to the United States is a crushing blow. Has Wise just killed the London stock market? A stock market needs a

Martin Vander Weyer

In praise of Michael O’Leary

NatWest has returned to full private-sector ownership 17 years after the £46 billion bailout that took it into state hands – and five years after the name swap which reduced the once globally trumpeted Royal Bank of Scotland to a humble north-of-the-border branch network, while promoting its English subsidiary NatWest to become the parent brand. RBS shareholders who were almost wiped out but hung on to what are now NatWest certificates have seen their shares triple in value since 2023, finally surpassing the bailout price. HM Treasury took a £10.5 billion loss on the whole rescue exercise, which required a decade-long series of placements and buybacks to filter the taxpayers’

Starmer doesn’t have long to save his US trade deal

It has only been a few weeks since the UK agreed to a trade deal with the United States that exempted us from the worst of President Trump’s tariffs. There was a grand, if slightly awkward, ceremony in the White House. The deal was sold as a triumph of negotiation and diplomacy for the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, and even more for our ambassador in Washington, Lord Mandelson. But it seems Starmer may have got ahead of himself, for this deal appears to only have been a temporary truce. Right now there is a real risk that the government may blow the deal – and that would be hugely

Ross Clark

It will take more than 3% to make Britain ‘battle ready’

Does anyone really think that spending 3 per cent of GDP on defence would make Britain ‘battle-ready’, as Keir Starmer claims? (Assuming, that is, that he really did spend all that money rather than merely have an aspiration to do so). Here is the statistic of the day, to remind us of what a wartime economy really looks like. In 2023, according to the World Bank, Ukraine spent 36.7 per cent of its GDP on defence. And no, the reason that percentage is so high is not because Ukraine’s GDP collapsed: on the contrary, Ukraine’s GDP in 2023 was higher than in any year except the Covid rebound year of

Michael Simmons

Will Rachel Reeves heed the warnings over the UK’s gloomy economic outlook?

Rachel Reeves has been warned again that the slim headroom against her ‘ironclad’ fiscal rule could be wiped out if growth prospects worsen. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in its latest economic outlook for the UK that ‘very thin fiscal buffers could be insufficient to provide adequate support without breaching the fiscal rules in the event of renewed adverse shocks’. The OECD also downgraded Britain’s growth forecast. It predicted the economy will grow by 1.3 per cent in 2025 and then just 1 per cent next year – a fall from their previous forecast of 1.4 and 1.2 per cent. The OECD said this downgrade was

Reform’s risky economic experiment

At last they have found it. Or, at least, they think they have. Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch have been hunting around for months trying to find Nigel Farage’s Achilles’ heel. While they have been searching, the popularity of the Reform party has soared ahead of that of their own parties. But now, finally, they reckon to have identified the weak spot. In their shared enthusiasm, they both described Reform’s emerging tax plans as ‘fantasy economics’. Starmer gave the bemused workers at a glass factory a seven-minute harangue about it, declaring Reform’s plans a ‘mad experiment’. Badenoch fumed that ‘Jeremy Corbyn’s “magic money tree” is back’ with a Reform

Michael Simmons

Rachel Reeves risks killing off the family business

Changes to how inheritance tax and trusts are treated for non-doms have already put the nation’s finances on shakier ground – something I revealed in a cover story last month. Now, a new report suggests these anti-business Treasury policies may risk killing off Britain’s family firms too. Fresh analysis by the CBI’s economics consultancy, commissioned by Family Business UK, warns that these changes to inheritance tax could jeopardise more than 208,000 full-time jobs over the course of this Parliament. That’s more than the entire construction workforce in London. The report says that as small firms retreat from long-term investment, the wider economic consequences could be severe. The government may have unwittingly damaged

Why is your pension fund so obsessed with net zero?

Legal & General is Britain’s largest asset manager, with over £1 trillion on its books. Every pound it manages should be dedicated to achieving the highest possible returns. This matters a lot: L&G manages over five million pensions in the UK. But in recent years, the asset manager has been particularly concerned with fashionable causes, instead of being entirely focused on making sure your retirement is secure. Individuals already fund net zero schemes via their taxes. They should not be forced to pay an effective additional tax, via lower returns, to fund net zero with their retirement savings That is why I recently attended their AGM. I wanted to learn

Britain’s Gulf trade deal is not the place for virtue signalling

Rachel Reeves announced that a trade deal with the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) – in other words, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states – was imminent last week. It was then leaked that, even though the deal was with unashamed petrostates with no time for net zero and, in some cases, a distinctly doubtful record on rights, the text imposed no legal duties in respect of human rights, modern slavery or the environment. The trade unions and human rights groups are unhappy. The TUC wants any deal to be conditional on workers’ rights protection; the Trade Justice Movement and other earnest humanitarian activists are demanding binding commitments on human rights

Ross Clark

Starmer’s welfare cuts are nothing like ‘Tory austerity’

Keir Starmer has already folded on the winter fuel payment, promising a partial reversal of the policy by reinstating it for pensioners in receipt of pension credit. How much longer before the proposed £4.8 billion cuts to welfare benefits go the same way? This morning, the Health Foundation think tank has issued a pronouncement that will be a red rag to critics of Labour’s welfare cuts: that the effect of Starmer’s reform of disability benefits will be four times as great as changes proposed by the Conservatives before the election and on a similar scale to George Osborne’s benefits cuts of 2015. Those cuts, announced in Osborne’s July budget of

Michael Simmons

Will the economy save the Tories?

This week Dominic Cummings said the Tories may have ‘crossed the event horizon’. He was trying to find a tech bro way of saying the game is up: they’re finished as an electoral force and it’s only Labour, Reform and the Lib Dems still in play. But might the Tories have one last chance? If they do, that chance will come from the economy. Next week the shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, will try to make the case for the Tories being the party of economic responsibility in a keynote speech to the Royal Society for Arts, Manufactures and Commerce. ‘Our country faces significant and increasing challenges both at home and

Michael Simmons

Is this the end of Trump’s tariffs? Don’t count on it

Overnight three federal judges on the United States Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump’s worldwide tariffs are unlawful and blocked them from going into effect. A group of businesses had taken the President’s administration to court, successfully arguing that the tariffs announced on ‘Liberation Day’ were beyond the powers of the presidency. The ruling made clear that the US Congress has sole authority on passing legislation affecting cross-border trade. The White House immediately appealed and argued that the court does not have the right to rule on the matter. The effect of the ruling will be to dismantle the entire tariff regime announced on Liberation Day The effect

James Heale

How to do a spending review

21 min listen

Labour’s spending review is expected on the 11th of June, when we will find out which government departments face cuts and which costs have been ringfenced. This can set the tone for politics for months to come as it gives a clue to which priorities matter most – especially in times of fiscal restraint – and which ministers are up, and which are down. But how is a spending review conducted? How does His Majesty’s Treasury balance the negotiations with those competing for its attention? And, following the leaked Angela Rayner memo, do we know which economic arguments are winning out? James Nation, formerly an official at HMT and then in

Michael Simmons

Is the welfare state about to expand?

18 min listen

James Heale and Michael Simmons join Patrick Gibbons to discuss the speculation that Labour could scrap the two-child benefit cap. Is this just red meat for the left of the party or is it a sign that public opinion around welfare has shifted? And, with mixed messages on the economy, can the country afford to scrap it? This comes just a week after Labour’s partial U-turn over the winter fuel allowance so, with pressure also increasing from Reform, is the welfare state about to expand? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.