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Why aren’t the stock markets spooked by Trump’s new tariffs?

As President Trump unveiled his latest round of tariffs last night, investors barely paid any attention. The stock markets barely moved. The currency markets remained sleepy. And most of the traders in the global financial markets went back to planning their summer holidays. Compared to ‘Liberation Day’ back in April, it was a damp squib. Have investors learned to shrug off Trump’s obsession with levies on imports? They certainly matter far less than he thinks they do.  It was a typically eccentric performance. Yesterday afternoon, the White House fired off a series of letters imposing new tariffs on some of America’s main trading partners. Japan faces 25 per cent tariffs,

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

Ross Clark

No, Ed Miliband: zonal pricing won’t cut energy bills

Is Ed Miliband going to announce a move towards a zonal electricity market, where wholesale prices would vary between regions of Britain? It would appear to be on cards following the Energy and Climate Secretary’s interview on the Today programme in which he said he was considering the idea. Miliband’s apparent support for the plan follows intense lobbying by Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy as well as support from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the new government-owned company which oversees the grid. However, zonal pricing is bitterly opposed by others in the energy industry, including Chris O’Shea, the generously-moustached CEO of Centrica, and Dale Vince, CEO of Electrocity

The welfare state has become absurdly dysfunctional

Britain’s 12.9 million pensioners are better off financially than they have ever been, and certainly compared with the rest of the country. Their winter fuel allowance has been restored. The triple lock looks completely secure. And with the stock market close to record highs, any savings they have will be in a healthy state as well. There is just one snag. More of them are paying tax than ever before – and that is emblematic of a bloated welfare system that has become completely dysfunctional.  Another 420,000 people over the state pension age will have to pay some income tax in 2025-26, bringing the total to 8.7 million, according to

James Heale

Keir Starmer climbs down on welfare cuts

At last, Keir Starmer has bowed to the inevitable. Having first adopted a posture of defiance, then conciliation, the Prime Minister has tonight admitted capitulation on the great welfare revolt. The Guardian reports that the ringleaders of the 126 rebels who signed a wrecking amendment to the Welfare Bill are now claiming ‘massive concessions.’ It follows a tense afternoon of talks between Starmer and his MPs. It means another big U-turn for Starmer – and another hole in the Treasury’s finances The rebels say that they have been promised significant changes to planned cuts. These include moderating the Bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits. Starmer also

James Kirkup

Labour’s welfare rebels will regret their revolt

A Labour government facing a rebellion over welfare reform is something of a dog-bites-man story – Labour never finds this issue easy. But the nature of the current rebellion tells us something novel and revealing, not about the policy, but about the modern Member of Parliament. Yes, principle and policy matter here, but what’s really driving dissent on Labour’s backbenches is not ideology, but geography. Or more precisely, constituency geography. Many of the Labour MPs likely to defy the leadership on welfare cuts are not old lags or even rebels by temperament. Many are new to Westminster, elected in the 2024 landslide that gave Labour power. And their rebellion is not

Martin Vander Weyer

The hidden costs of Angela Rayner’s Employment Rights Bill

One peril of a sudden adverse turn of global events is that it provides cover for bad domestic government. If confidence is knocked by fear of war, if inflation blips because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, if demand for defence spending sends budgets awry, voters may easily be persuaded that Middle East conflict, rather than Labour policy, has put the UK economy flat on its back. But that’s no excuse for proceeding with bad legislation as the world darkens – and one such item is Angela Rayner’s Employment Rights Bill, currently under House of Lords scrutiny, which in brief summary confers fearsome powers on trade unions and creates a

Is the Bank of England turning on Rachel Reeves?

Rachel Reeves does not have many supporters left. The bond markets don’t think much of the Chancellor. Business groups have rubbished her policies, and so have many of the UK’s largest companies. Meanwhile, Labour backbenchers are furious about both the chaos over the winter fuel allowance and the cuts to the welfare budget. Now, it looks as if the Bank of England may have turned on her as well, if comments from the Bank’s governor are anything to go on. We might expect Andrew Bailey to avoid any direct criticism of the Chancellor. After all, she is his boss. What’s more, a public split between the UK’s two most important

Michael Simmons

Britain is racing towards a fresh cost-of-living crisis

The poorest Brits now owe £6.6 billion in unpaid council tax – a record high and up some 85 per cent since before the pandemic. That’s according to data released this morning by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, which suggests Britain is plunging back into a cost-of-living crisis. What’s more, a report also out today by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) finds that between 2022 and 2024, some 400,000 more households slipped into arrears, taking the total number of people in debt to their local council to 1.8 million. The CSJ’s report also finds that 97 per cent of those in arrears have at least one

Without non-doms, who will pay for Labour’s bloated state?

We are not the fastest growing economy in the G7, even though the Labour party promised that we would be. We are not topping any tables for inward investment, and we have fallen to the bottom of the league for new companies listed on the stock market. Still, it is good to know that there is still one measure where the UK economy comfortably beats the rest of the world. We are now losing more millionaires than any rival nation. The exodus of wealth out of the UK, it appears, is accelerating – and very soon this is going to turn into a big problem for the Chancellor Rachel Reeves. 

Michael Simmons

Britain is paying for Reeves’s non-dom tax disaster

Britain will lose 16,500 millionaires this year, taking $90 billion of wealth with them. That’s according to a new report from Henley & Partners. If their projections are right, that’s more than double the number of dollar millionaires expected to leave China in 2025. As I wrote for the magazine last month, changes to the non-dom regime – first initiated in the dying months of the last government and worsened by the current Chancellor – have pushed many of the wealthiest over the edge. The effects are already becoming visible. Research from estate agent Knight Frank shows that sales of expensive homes slowed between March 2024 and this May, leading to £401 million

Why is Starmer ignoring Britain’s tech sector?

The government’s hotly-anticipated industrial strategy has at last arrived. In it are a handful of bold new announcements, and a lot of old recycled ones. There are some big shiny spending commitments – a couple of billion pledged here, a few hundred million spent there. But perhaps the most consequential element, especially for the tech sector, is a note right at the back of the document on page 152. It expresses an ambition for procurement rules to be consistent with the government’s wider industrial strategy to grow the economy – or as the document puts it in fluffy Whitehall-speak, contracts must ‘set at least one social value key performance indicator’.

Reform’s ‘Britannia cards’ will cost £34 billion

Speaking today at Church House in Westminster, Nigel Farage announced that Reform will introduce a ‘Britannia card’ that will let wealthy foreigners pay a £250,000 fee to move to the UK, and live here exempt from all tax on their foreign assets. The move is an attempt to win over ‘non-doms’ alienated by Labour and Conservative governments and bring their wealth back into the country. Farage may think his policy will attract ‘talented people’ from around the world, in reality it is more likely to deter them. Farage forgot about the Laffer curve The party says the policy will raise between £1.5 and £2.5 billion annually. Our analysis of the

Reform can go further in its plan to woo back non-doms

We will hear plenty of familiar criticisms of the plan unveiled by Reform yesterday to bring non-doms, as wealthy foreigners who enjoy a special tax regime in the UK are known, back. It will make Britain a magnate for tax dodgers and money launderers. It will increase inequality. And the only jobs it creates will be as servants of the super-rich. In fact, however, the only problem with the Reform plan is that it doesn’t go far enough. The party should be a lot more ambitious as it prepares for a potential government.  It will certainly be a major change. After a decade over which all the political debate has

Has Putin pushed the Russian economy to its limits?

The remarkable resurgence the Russian economy has experienced since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is losing momentum. Where once Putin could boast about 4.3 per cent growth rates for two years in a row – thumbing his nose at Western sanctions with all the aplomb of a man who’d discovered alchemy – the numbers now tell a somewhat different story. The party, as they say, is over – and the time to crank up sanctions against Moscow has come. For two years running, Putin’s propagandists have crowed about Russia’s economic vitality as proof that Western sanctions were about as effective as a chocolate teapot. The economy’s steroid-fuelled growth, pumped up

Michael Simmons

Why the Bank of England may welcome job losses

Interest rates have been held at 4.25 per cent. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by six to three to hold rates after cutting them in May. The move mirrors that of the US Federal Reserve, which yesterday held rates for the fourth time in a row. Their decision came despite badgering from President Trump, desperate for a rate cut as inflation remains hard to tame and forecasts predict sluggish growth and rising unemployment. In Britain, the cost of borrowing on credit cards rose to its highest ever level on record in the second quarter of the year, according to Moneyfacts – despite the rate cut from

Your pension fund is right to flee Labour’s Britain

One of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s few big ideas for boosting growth was to persuade pension funds to invest more of their assets in Britain. But hold on. Today, we learned that Scottish Widows, one of the biggest funds, is dramatically reducing its exposure to this country – and it is quite right to do so. Over the last decade, the S&P 500 has delivered a total return of 235 per cent, compared with just 92 per cent for the FTSE 100 The fund managers at the Lloyds-owned Scottish Widows, which controls £72 billion of workplace pensions assets, clearly didn’t get the memo about how this was the moment to put

Martin Vander Weyer

Mark Carney, the mischief-making pin-up

Well, would you look at Mark Carney. Just three months ago I described the incoming prime minister of Canada and former governor of the Bank of England as ‘a fish-out-of-water technocrat’ who made little public impact over here and was swiftly forgotten after he left in 2020. When I once came across him hunched and dark-suited in the Pret queue at King’s Cross, midway through his Bank tenure, I actually felt sorry for him. But here he is, beer-swigging in an Ottawa bar with Sir Keir Starmer; cutting Donald Trump short in a press call before the G7 meeting; shedding his eco-credentials to champion Canadian oil and gas; and generally

Michael Simmons

Why is the ONS saying inflation has gone down?

The rate of inflation remained flat at 3.4 per cent in May – still well above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target. Bizarrely, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in their figures released this morning, claims this is down from 3.5 per cent the month before, even though just a couple of weeks ago they admitted that figure was overstated due to an error. Because of a policy not to revise inflation figures, that error lives on – leading them to announce the fiction that inflation has fallen. The reality is it has not. The result of stubbornly sticking to this no-revisions policy is a slew of misreporting

Michael Simmons

Rachel Reeves’s non-dom crackdown has truly backfired

Rachel Reeves may finally have seen sense. A report in this morning’s Financial Times suggests she is ‘exploring’ performing a 180 on the changes to inheritance tax rules which meant non doms would have to pay the death tax on their global assets – even on wealth earned before they came to the UK. As I explained in our magazine cover piece last month, the fact that these changes – which came into force in April – would apply retroactively is what really sent non-doms over the edge and led them to flee the country in large numbers, taking their wealth and not insignificant tax revenues with them. Rachel Reeves has to deal

Michael Simmons

The good and bad news about the UK-US trade deal

Donald Trump and Keir Starmer’s transatlantic trade deal has finally been signed. Before making an early exit from the G7, the US president approved an executive order giving legal effect to parts of the US-UK deal. The outline of the agreement was settled weeks earlier during a conference call, with Trump in the White House and Peter Mandelson, the UK ambassador in Washington, standing, slightly creepily, over his shoulder, as Starmer dialled in from 4,000 miles away. If the deal is to progress further, an almighty row could be brewing The delay in any further announcement left conservatives, and businesses, wondering whether the deal outline a month ago was turning

The markets don’t care much about Israel and Iran

As missiles fly across the Middle East as Israel and Iran embark on what could well become a wider regional conflict, you might expect turmoil in the financial markets. After all, if the beginning of a third world war doesn’t knock a few dollars off the Apple share price it is hard to know what would. But it turns out that investors, at least for now, appear indifferent. Investors, at least for now, appear indifferent Looking at a trading screen this morning you would probably think not much was going on in the world. The FTSE100 was up 30 points. Overnight, the Nikkei was up by 1.2 per cent; and

Motability won’t give up its lucrative business without a fight

Motability, the scheme set up to provide vehicles, scooters and powered wheelchairs to disabled people, has become something of a monster. By the end of 2024, Motability supported a staggering 815,000 vehicles, up by 200,000 in the last two years alone. It is clear that the scheme has extended way beyond its original purpose and is in dire need of reform. But Motability is determined not to give up its lucrative business model without a fight. Only five per cent of Motability cars are adapted for those with physical disabilities Andrew Miller, the scheme’s chief executive, has hit back at criticism of Motability. ‘We’ve been a business all along. Any sense