Economy

As far as the economy goes, Sir Keir Starmer has enjoyed something of a golden honeymoon. True, he has had riots to deal with, but economic growth has been stronger than many anticipated, while a small uptick in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) allowed the Bank of England to reduce interest rates earlier this month. Everything appeared to be going in the right direction – until this morning, that is. Ofgem have announced that the energy price cap will rise in October by 9 per cent, adding an average of £149 to annual bills. While a rise was expected, this is a substantial rise at a time when inflation seemed

It had the history, the manufacturing muscle, the capital, and the brand to make it work. When Ford announced plans to create an all-electric SUV, it looked like the moment the major auto manufacturers could finally bring battery-powered cars into the mass market. Until today. The American company has abandoned its plans to build the new electric car, and announced a $1.9 billion write-off on the project citing cost pressures. The trouble is, if the company that more or less invented the mass production of cars a century ago can’t make electric vehicles (EV) work, then it is very hard to believe that any of the Western manufacturers can. If

During his time as Scotland’s First Minister, Alex Salmond was accused by the Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont of fostering a ‘something for nothing’ culture with vote-grabbing policies like free university tuition, free prescriptions and a council tax freeze – expensive gimmicks that took cash away from where it was needed most. Lamont’s analysis was sound and reflected the consensus among Scottish economists but she was pilloried for her speech and her leadership never really recovered. Vindication twelve years after the fact might be cold comfort for Lamont but the SNP government has seemingly come around to her way of thinking. A week ago, it scrapped the devolved version of

What a joke the government’s promise to concentrate on ‘growth, growth, growth’ is becoming. Since the Prime Minister uttered those words on entering Downing Street, we have had road schemes cancelled and money withdrawn from a supercomputer project at Edinburgh university, that could have given Britain’s AI industry a leg-up. We have had fat pay rises for public sector workers without any requirement for them to adopt more efficient working practices. And we have businesses about to be lumbered with the requirement to offer employees flexible working hours from day one of their employment. Now there is another productivity-destroying proposal on the table. Angela Rayner has drawn up plans for

Is this the first sign of a bounce in the housing market? Property website Rightmove is reporting this morning that enquiries to estate agents so far this month are 19 per cent on August last year. This follows a quarter-point cut in interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE).  Rightmove’s data is forward-looking, in that it represents the first step in the house-buying process: contacting an estate agent for information, or for a viewing. Then again, enquiries are only enquiries – it is a big step from there to securing a mortgage and making an offer, and an even bigger step actually to completing a purchase. The government’s data for completed

So, we were all so impressed with the swashbuckling performance of Gareth Southgate’s team that we all rushed out and bought replica England shirts and packs of lager – to the point that retail sales in July were 0.5 per cent higher than in June. No, I don’t buy that either – even though it has been widely reported today in reaction to the latest statistical release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). As I have written here before, I don’t really trust the month-on-month figures for retail sales. They are too volatile to be meaningful. Moreover, they depend somewhat on how many weekends fell in the month: some

The UK economy flatlined in June, as uncertainty over the general election and industrial action took their toll on economic growth. It wasn’t expected to be a strong month for the economy, with markets forecasting very little GDP growth, if any. But the small dip in services output – a fall of 0.1 per cent, driven primarily by a fall in retail trade – was disappointing after five months of consecutive growth. Still, June’s figures are the perfect example of why one month of data rarely tells the full story. Businesses reported to the ONS that ‘customers were delaying placing orders until the outcome of the election was known’ which

Growth is slowing down. The property market is wobbling. And the government is tightening its grip on every form of economic activity. Global investors have made a decision about China over the last few months. It may have one of the biggest markets in the world, but the risks are simply too high. Over the second quarter of this year, foreign investors pulled a record amount of money out of China. A total of $15 billion was taken out of the country, and if that continues for the rest of the year it will be the first time the total has turned negative since 1999. There is, however, one exception:

Today’s labour market figures ought to bring good news: they show that growth on earnings has moderated to 5.4 per cent, the lowest level in two years. That should ease fears of inflation – it is growth in pay which has most concerned the Bank of England in recent months – and pave the way for further cuts in interest rates. The trouble is, though, that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has undermined this by granting pay rises of 5.5 per cent to several million public sector workers – threatening to reignite wage growth again. The public sector has become an inflationary engine chugging away in one corner of the economy

Is America about to enter a recession and take the world with it? Yesterday the pound was on track for its longest losing streak in a year as markets once again began to fear a US recession. The week started with what looked like the bursting of a tech bubble. Japan’s Nikkei dropped by 12 per cent in a day – its largest fall since Black Monday nearly four decades ago. But by Tuesday morning, stocks had recovered 10 per cent and markets looked to be steadying while the jittery hands of investors began to hold firm. Are we out of the woods? Not quite. A leading Wall Street Bank

The markets are tumbling. Investors are bailing out. And there are already fears that the plunge in equities is a sign that a recession is just around the corner in America. With a presidential election only a few months away, the Federal Reserve will come under intense pressure to bail out the market with a cut in interest rates as it has done so often over the last quarter of a century. So will central banks in the UK and the Euro-zone. This time around, though, it would be madness to cut rates: it will just make the asset bubble much worse.  The FTSE-100 has fallen sharply again this morning,

Liz Truss continues to do a lot of heavy lifting for the Labour party. The former prime minister’s mini-Budget featured more in the election – as a Labour talking point – than any piece of policy implemented by Rishi Sunak. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is determined to present the next round of spending cuts and tax hikes as an extension of Tory policy, rather than the start of Labour policy. The narrative that, under Truss, the Tories ‘crashed the economy’ is part of what’s being used to justify all the ‘tough decisions’ Labour has coming up in its first Budget at the end of October. The perceived wisdom of what the

The Chancellor has kicked off her investment tour under rather difficult circumstances. While Rachel Reeves spends the next three days in the United States and Canada trying to drum up investment for Britain, the world of finance remains with eyes glued to the turbulence of the stock market, having to admit to itself that it’s not sure what comes next. After experiencing its worst crash yesterday since Black Monday in 1987, Japan’s stock market has all but recovered, rising by 10 per cent today – its biggest single-day gains in history. Nearly all markets in Asia are on the up. But while the FTSE 100 looked set for a rebound,