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Cutting the cash Isa allowance screams of desperation

The economy has stagnated, foreign investment has collapsed, the non-doms have fled and the entrepreneurs are following them. Meanwhile, Labour backbenchers are clamouring for more spending. Not much has been going right for the Chancellor Rachel Reeves. But she has a grand new plan: increase taxes on saving. Reeves has been reduced to scrabbling around for money wherever she can find it Reeves is expected to announce later this month that the amount that can be put into a tax-free cash Isa every year will be slashed from the current £20,000 to as little as £4,000, and perhaps even less. The decision will be dressed up as encouraging saving in

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

Ross Clark

No, Ed Miliband: zonal pricing won’t cut energy bills

Is Ed Miliband going to announce a move towards a zonal electricity market, where wholesale prices would vary between regions of Britain? It would appear to be on cards following the Energy and Climate Secretary’s interview on the Today programme in which he said he was considering the idea. Miliband’s apparent support for the plan follows intense lobbying by Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy as well as support from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the new government-owned company which oversees the grid. However, zonal pricing is bitterly opposed by others in the energy industry, including Chris O’Shea, the generously-moustached CEO of Centrica, and Dale Vince, CEO of Electrocity

Politicians, not ChatGPT, caused the recruitment slump

The machines are already smarter and better organised than humans. They never ask for a pay rise, and they don’t ask any awkward questions about the company’s environmental record. An artificial employee is, in many ways, the model employee. But is artificial intelligence really responsible for a recent fall in entry-level jobs, as new figures from Adzuna, the online jobs board, would have you believe? Or is the Chancellor Rachel Reeves as much to blame as the ChatGPT founder Sam Altman? It may be fashionable to blame AI, but it is wrong It is certainly looking like a tough year to graduate from university. According to figures from Adzuna, the

Mark Galeotti

Will Putin really rein in Russia’s defence spending?

At the very time when those warmongering Nato nations are pledging to raise their defence spending substantially, that doveish peacenik Vladimir Putin is promising to reduce his. It’s hard to know which of these two commitments is less plausible, but those anticipating the cranking down of the Russian war economy any time soon are going to have to wait rather longer. At the recent St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin said that: We are planning to reduce defence spending. For next year and the year after that and so on – for the next three years – we are planning to do so, although there is not yet a

Michael Simmons

Britain is facing a doomy economic future

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has confirmed the economy grew by 0.7 per cent in the first three months of the year. The figures, released this morning, are the ONS’s second attempt at estimating growth in the first quarter and, unusually, the GDP growth number was unrevised from the initial estimate. The strong growth – the fastest pace in a year – between January and March could be the last bit of economic good news Chancellor Rachel Reeves is able to celebrate this year as this set of numbers cover the period before her £25 billion raid on employer national insurance came into effect. It does, however, confirm that

Michael Simmons

Revealed: the dodgy data undermining Universal Credit

As Sir Keir Starmer offers concessions to 126 rebels to water down his welfare reform bill, a scandal that undermines the entire Universal Credit system goes ignored. The Spectator has seen figures revealing that the HMRC data feed which powers Universal Credit payments to low-paid workers may be so error-strewn that as many as one in four claimants has been underpaid, overpaid or not paid at all. When Universal Credit was introduced 11 years ago to modernise benefits, it required a robust data system to drive it. HMRC’s answer was the ‘Real Time Information’ (RTI) system – hailed at the time as the most significant overhaul of the tax system since

The welfare state has become absurdly dysfunctional

Britain’s 12.9 million pensioners are better off financially than they have ever been, and certainly compared with the rest of the country. Their winter fuel allowance has been restored. The triple lock looks completely secure. And with the stock market close to record highs, any savings they have will be in a healthy state as well. There is just one snag. More of them are paying tax than ever before – and that is emblematic of a bloated welfare system that has become completely dysfunctional.  Another 420,000 people over the state pension age will have to pay some income tax in 2025-26, bringing the total to 8.7 million, according to

James Heale

Keir Starmer climbs down on welfare cuts

At last, Keir Starmer has bowed to the inevitable. Having first adopted a posture of defiance, then conciliation, the Prime Minister has tonight admitted capitulation on the great welfare revolt. The Guardian reports that the ringleaders of the 126 rebels who signed a wrecking amendment to the Welfare Bill are now claiming ‘massive concessions.’ It follows a tense afternoon of talks between Starmer and his MPs. It means another big U-turn for Starmer – and another hole in the Treasury’s finances The rebels say that they have been promised significant changes to planned cuts. These include moderating the Bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits. Starmer also

James Kirkup

Labour’s welfare rebels will regret their revolt

A Labour government facing a rebellion over welfare reform is something of a dog-bites-man story – Labour never finds this issue easy. But the nature of the current rebellion tells us something novel and revealing, not about the policy, but about the modern Member of Parliament. Yes, principle and policy matter here, but what’s really driving dissent on Labour’s backbenches is not ideology, but geography. Or more precisely, constituency geography. Many of the Labour MPs likely to defy the leadership on welfare cuts are not old lags or even rebels by temperament. Many are new to Westminster, elected in the 2024 landslide that gave Labour power. And their rebellion is not

Martin Vander Weyer

The hidden costs of Angela Rayner’s Employment Rights Bill

One peril of a sudden adverse turn of global events is that it provides cover for bad domestic government. If confidence is knocked by fear of war, if inflation blips because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, if demand for defence spending sends budgets awry, voters may easily be persuaded that Middle East conflict, rather than Labour policy, has put the UK economy flat on its back. But that’s no excuse for proceeding with bad legislation as the world darkens – and one such item is Angela Rayner’s Employment Rights Bill, currently under House of Lords scrutiny, which in brief summary confers fearsome powers on trade unions and creates a

Is the Bank of England turning on Rachel Reeves?

Rachel Reeves does not have many supporters left. The bond markets don’t think much of the Chancellor. Business groups have rubbished her policies, and so have many of the UK’s largest companies. Meanwhile, Labour backbenchers are furious about both the chaos over the winter fuel allowance and the cuts to the welfare budget. Now, it looks as if the Bank of England may have turned on her as well, if comments from the Bank’s governor are anything to go on. We might expect Andrew Bailey to avoid any direct criticism of the Chancellor. After all, she is his boss. What’s more, a public split between the UK’s two most important

Michael Simmons

Britain is racing towards a fresh cost-of-living crisis

The poorest Brits now owe £6.6 billion in unpaid council tax – a record high and up some 85 per cent since before the pandemic. That’s according to data released this morning by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, which suggests Britain is plunging back into a cost-of-living crisis. What’s more, a report also out today by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) finds that between 2022 and 2024, some 400,000 more households slipped into arrears, taking the total number of people in debt to their local council to 1.8 million. The CSJ’s report also finds that 97 per cent of those in arrears have at least one

Without non-doms, who will pay for Labour’s bloated state?

We are not the fastest growing economy in the G7, even though the Labour party promised that we would be. We are not topping any tables for inward investment, and we have fallen to the bottom of the league for new companies listed on the stock market. Still, it is good to know that there is still one measure where the UK economy comfortably beats the rest of the world. We are now losing more millionaires than any rival nation. The exodus of wealth out of the UK, it appears, is accelerating – and very soon this is going to turn into a big problem for the Chancellor Rachel Reeves. 

Michael Simmons

Britain is paying for Reeves’s non-dom tax disaster

Britain will lose 16,500 millionaires this year, taking $90 billion of wealth with them. That’s according to a new report from Henley & Partners. If their projections are right, that’s more than double the number of dollar millionaires expected to leave China in 2025. As I wrote for the magazine last month, changes to the non-dom regime – first initiated in the dying months of the last government and worsened by the current Chancellor – have pushed many of the wealthiest over the edge. The effects are already becoming visible. Research from estate agent Knight Frank shows that sales of expensive homes slowed between March 2024 and this May, leading to £401 million

Why is Starmer ignoring Britain’s tech sector?

The government’s hotly-anticipated industrial strategy has at last arrived. In it are a handful of bold new announcements, and a lot of old recycled ones. There are some big shiny spending commitments – a couple of billion pledged here, a few hundred million spent there. But perhaps the most consequential element, especially for the tech sector, is a note right at the back of the document on page 152. It expresses an ambition for procurement rules to be consistent with the government’s wider industrial strategy to grow the economy – or as the document puts it in fluffy Whitehall-speak, contracts must ‘set at least one social value key performance indicator’.

Reform’s ‘Britannia cards’ will cost £34 billion

Speaking today at Church House in Westminster, Nigel Farage announced that Reform will introduce a ‘Britannia card’ that will let wealthy foreigners pay a £250,000 fee to move to the UK, and live here exempt from all tax on their foreign assets. The move is an attempt to win over ‘non-doms’ alienated by Labour and Conservative governments and bring their wealth back into the country. Farage may think his policy will attract ‘talented people’ from around the world, in reality it is more likely to deter them. Farage forgot about the Laffer curve The party says the policy will raise between £1.5 and £2.5 billion annually. Our analysis of the

Reform can go further in its plan to woo back non-doms

We will hear plenty of familiar criticisms of the plan unveiled by Reform yesterday to bring non-doms, as wealthy foreigners who enjoy a special tax regime in the UK are known, back. It will make Britain a magnate for tax dodgers and money launderers. It will increase inequality. And the only jobs it creates will be as servants of the super-rich. In fact, however, the only problem with the Reform plan is that it doesn’t go far enough. The party should be a lot more ambitious as it prepares for a potential government.  It will certainly be a major change. After a decade over which all the political debate has

Has Putin pushed the Russian economy to its limits?

The remarkable resurgence the Russian economy has experienced since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is losing momentum. Where once Putin could boast about 4.3 per cent growth rates for two years in a row – thumbing his nose at Western sanctions with all the aplomb of a man who’d discovered alchemy – the numbers now tell a somewhat different story. The party, as they say, is over – and the time to crank up sanctions against Moscow has come. For two years running, Putin’s propagandists have crowed about Russia’s economic vitality as proof that Western sanctions were about as effective as a chocolate teapot. The economy’s steroid-fuelled growth, pumped up