SpecData

Notes and observations on facts and figures in the news

Sunday

Francois Balloux

Why China can’t stop zero Covid

The Covid situation in China is not looking good right now. The authorities have trapped themselves into a situation from which there’s no obvious escape strategy. Whatever they choose – or will be forced – to do next will be very costly. The country is extremely poorly prepared for a major surge of the virus So far China has only managed to suppress Covid with brutal restrictions. Those are becoming increasingly untenable and the population is suffering. Unrest is spilling out into the streets in cities across the country. A major surge seems largely inevitable in the short term unless the authorities choose to enforce even more ruthless measures. A

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Yes, five million are on out-of-work benefits. Here’s the proof

How can 20 per cent of people in our great cities be on benefits at a time of mass migration and record vacancies? It’s perhaps the most important question in politics right now, but it’s not being given any scrutiny because the real figures lie behind a fog of data. But the fog is easily cleared, if you know where to look. What follows is for anyone with an interest in doing so, and it follows a few queries to The Spectator about how we found the five-million figure we’ve been using for a while. To solve a problem, you need to recognise a problem Every month, an official unemployment

Thursday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Is Truss in trouble?

The history of political popularity shows things go in one direction: down. John Major entered office with a net satisfaction of +15 and left it having lost 42 points. Blair moved into Downing Street a whopping 60 points in the positive. When he left he’d fallen to -27. And so the story goes – even the Maybot started quite popular with a +35. Where you start can make all the difference. If things are only going to go one way, you want as handsome a margin as possible. That’s why today’s political monitor poll from Ipsos Mori could spell trouble for Truss. She’s beginning her term in office on minus

Wednesday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Is long Covid all in the mind?

What’s the link between long Covid and mental health? A study just published in the Journal of the American Medical Association suggests it’s a significant one. The paper looked at more than 3,000 people who tested positive for Covid in the US. Of those who went on to develop ‘long Covid’, it found many of them already experienced mental distress before catching the virus. The study looked at 3,193 people – mostly women – who reported Covid symptoms continuing four weeks after first falling ill. They found that those reporting long Covid were more likely to have already experienced a range of symptoms including ‘depression, anxiety, worry about Covid, loneliness and

Wednesday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Has Sadiq Khan’s junk food ad ban really stopped London getting fatter?

London Mayor Sadiq Khan made a bold claim this week: ‘As a result of our junk food advertising ban on Transport for London, nearly 100,000 cases of obesity have been prevented since 2019.’ Hailing the ‘incredible result’, Khan said ‘it’s expected to save the NHS over £200 million’. Is it true though? To ascertain whether the ban worked, researchers from Sheffield university and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine produced a graph. They found that there were some 4.8 per cent fewer obese people than expected and 1.8 per cent fewer overweight people. What they didn’t do was actually count the obesity rate in London’s population. Instead, their estimates

Sunday

Robert Sutton

Can Rishi win?

It’s been just over two weeks since Boris Johnson announced his resignation, and the initial flurry of early polling on his potential successor has started to coalesce. The two candidates left standing, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, will have their teams pouring over the available data. And for both sides, the numbers suggest the contest will be a punishing one. There are three key trends which can be identified so far, and these trends pose a difficult choice for those Conservative party members voting for the new prime minister. First: Truss has enjoyed a consistent and significant lead over Sunak in all but one of the seven polls of party

Tuesday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Datawatch: Falling attainment in primary school leavers

Last month, concerning data revealed the damage lockdown had done to children. Data released today further illuminates the consequences of Covid restrictions. Figures released this morning by the Department for Education paint a worrying picture: attainment in children aged eight to 11 in five key areas – reading, maths, grammar, writing and science – have fallen drastically. The assessments found that only 59 per cent of children are meeting the expected standards in reading, writing and maths compared with 65 per cent before the pandemic. The results are the lowest attainment scores since 2016. The only area which saw an improvement over the lockdown period was reading, which rose one

Sunday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Is there a new Covid wave – and do we need to worry?

Is Covid back on the rise? The ONS survey shows increasing prevalence in England and Northern Ireland, with ‘uncertain’ results in Wales and Scotland. Scotland’s prevalence (2.4 per cent have the virus, according to the ONS) is almost double anywhere else. Hospitalisations are rising too: up 17 per cent since last week – though two-thirds are incidental (ie in hospital for other reasons). So is this a new Covid wave? ‘Early signs that Covid may be rising’, says the BBC. But to those following the data closely, the uptick has been expected for some time – as the natural side-effect of a new variant. It is not, in and of

Wednesday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Sturgeon’s record in eight graphs

Today, Nicola Sturgeon becomes the longest serving First Minister in the history of devolution. Surpassing Alex Salmond’s seven years, six months and five days. It’s a long time to be in charge: a full generation by some definitions. Certainly time enough to make your mark on a country with devolved powers unparalleled in the democratic world. But what difference has Sturgeon made in her time in office: 1. Life expectancy for Scots men and women has seen the sharpest fall in 40 years – accelerating in the time Sturgeon’s been in power.  Scottish men born today can expect to live 77 years, the lowest of any UK country (it’s 79

Monday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Monkeypox: what we know so far

Contacts of patients infected with monkeypox are being asked to isolate for three weeks, according to guidance from the UK Health Security Agency. They will also be instructed to ‘avoid contact with immunosuppressed people, pregnant women, and children under 12’. In England, there have been just 20 confirmed cases so far but community spread has concerned scientists. Scotland reported its first case this morning. At least 109 cases have been confirmed globally, with Spain seeing the highest prevalence. A large proportion of cases have been reported among gay and bisexual men though monkeypox is not classified as a sexually transmitted disease. One theory under investigation is that a Pride event in

Thursday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

From snowball fights to delivering birthday cards: Britain’s 136,000 lockdown penalty charges

While Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer await the police’s judgment, there has been no end to the fines issued to others caught by their lockdown rules. At last count, some 136,000 fixed penalty notices had been issued in Britain. Durham police – a fairly easygoing force by Covid standards – have handed out just 1,090. Is it a bit mean to fine someone for having had a glass of wine or a beer at work? Perhaps. But no more so than the fines still being issued under the lockdown rules that Johnson and Starmer both voted through. A student in Leeds was fined £10,000 for organising a snowball fight. A