SpecData

Notes and observations on facts and figures in the news

Steerpike

Public trust in SNP government collapses

When it rains for Scotland’s Nats, it pours. It now transpires – according to the Scottish government’s very own survey – that between 2022 and 2023, the proportion of people who trust the SNP government has plummeted by a staggering 10 points. And that’s not all. Trust in all six public sector institutions has declined markedly in the last 12 months, with the results presenting a rather concerning picture for the SNP ahead of the 2026 Holyrood elections. Not that Mr S can say he’s particularly shocked… The Scottish government saw public trust fall from 55 per cent in 2022 to a mere 45 per cent the following year, while

Simon Cook

How does the NHS tackle eight million missed appointments?

One of the perennial scapegoats of the NHS is the patient who doesn’t turn up for their GP appointment. The headlines write themselves: millions of pounds wasted and other patients can’t get seen. But while missed GP visits have become a symbol of inefficiency, a far bigger – and often overlooked – problem lies within our hospitals. Every day, there are more than 300,000 outpatient appointments at hospitals, from MRI and breast scans to plaster casts and blood tests. And every day, 20,000 patients don’t turn up. On the surface the data looks like a success story for the NHS, with the percentage of appointments that patients miss gently falling over the last

Steerpike

New MPs were more likely to back assisted dying

Does wisdom come with age? MPs have just voted by a margin of 55 to back a bill to legalise assisted suicide. In what was the first Commons vote on assisted death for a decade, MPs voted 330 to 275 in favour of the bill.  The new intake of parliamentarians – those first elected in 2024 or returning after an enforced absence – were nearly twice as likely to back assisted suicide than any other intake. You might think this is just because most of the new MPs sit on Labour’s benches. Well, perhaps. But this was a free vote on an issue of conscience so we wouldn’t necessarily expect

Michael Simmons

Does anyone know how many people live in Britain?

Can Britain trust its economic statistics? The nation’s arbiters of numerical truth, the Office for National Statistics, yesterday released what on the face of it was good news for the Home Office and a vindication of the previous Conservative government’s policies to reduce worker visas and the number of dependants of migrants arriving in the UK. But in truth – and in the same data dump – the previous year’s figure had been revised up so much (by 307,000) that had it not been, the net migration figure published yesterday would have matched the previous record high. These revisions matter. Douglas McWilliams, founder of the Centre for Economics and Business

Steerpike

Tories take poll lead over Starmer’s Labour

Kemi Badenoch’s Tories have overtaken Labour for the first time in three years on The Spectator Data Hub’s poll tracker. This morning’s update gives the Conservatives a one-point lead over Keir Starmer’s Labour after a steady upward trend since July’s election. Steerpike wonders how much is down to Rishi Sunak’s surprisingly successful stint as leader of the opposition, Badenoch’s first few weeks in the job or Starmer’s ever sinking satisfaction ratings. The leftie leader now finds himself with more than half the country seeing him ‘unfavourably’ and with a net satisfaction rating of -29. Meanwhile, Mr S’s gambling friends note that both Badenoch and Starmer only have 50/50 odds at

Michael Simmons

Labour should be cautious about celebrating the fall in net migration

How can you miss over 300,000 migrants? This morning the Office for National Statistics revised up its previous record high net migration figure to 906,000 meaning that since 2021, 307,000 more migrants are in the country than the ONS previously knew about. So, has Britain turned the corner on migration? There has been a 20 per cent fall in net migration in the year to June compared to the 12 months before, according to figures published this morning by the ONS. Some 1.2 million people migrated to the UK compared with 1.3 million the year before. Meanwhile, 479,000 left the UK, up from 414,000 the previous year.  Net migration is

Michael Simmons

Who should Labour target to ‘get Britain working’?

Labour talks of having the ‘bold ambition of an 80 per cent employment rate’. But who should they target to get there? The government published its white paper this week on ‘getting Britain working’ and tackling the growing health and disability benefits bill, which is forecast to hit £120 billion.  Figures slipped out by the Office for National Statistics today give more insight on which groups could perhaps be better targeted. These figures split out employment rates by parental status, and show that already more than 80 per cent of married (or cohabiting) mothers and 93 per cent of married (or cohabiting) fathers with dependent children are working. This doesn’t leave a

Steerpike

Spectator investigation: the constituencies calling for an election

Since Steerpike first reported on the petition for another general election, another two million signatures have been added. (Not that Mr S is taking the credit.) While the petition is most popular in Tory and Reform-held seats – especially in Essex, where almost one in ten of the electorate have signed in some constituencies – MPs in Labour marginals should be taking note too. In Tamworth, Ribble Valley, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Derbyshire Dales and North West Leicestershire, Labour MPs with majorities of fewer than 1,500 votes have at least 5,500 constituents who have signed the petition. Derbyshire Dales’s new boy John Whitby perhaps has the most to fear as his

Did Covid vaccines really save 12 million lives?

The BBC reported that AstraZeneca and Pfizer are credited with together saving more than 12 million lives in the first year of Covid vaccination. To substantiate this claim, the BBC refers to Airfinity, a ‘disease forecasting company’. Models do not fit anywhere in the pathway for establishing effectiveness Airfinity used an Imperial College London study, which calculated that Covid vaccines saved 20 million lives between December 2020 and December 2021. Using a mathematical model, the Imperial team assumed that vaccination conferred protection against Covid infection (mRNA vaccines were estimated to have given 88 per cent protection against infection after the second dose) and the development of severe disease requiring hospital admission. The team also assumed

Why farmers – not the Treasury – are right about inheritance tax

There is a reason 10,000 farmers and their supporters descended on Westminster last week to protest against the government’s planned changes to inheritance tax. They know that any farm hit by the new charge will be in huge trouble. Farms are not a typical business asset – usually the value of a farming estate is far greater than any profits it generates. This means a single inheritance tax bill could wipe out a farm’s profits for a generation. The only solution for many farmers will be to sell up or break up their farms forever.  Still, the government and its supporters say the inheritance tax change will only affect ‘very few’ farmers,

Steerpike

Swing seats back another election

For more than a decade, viral petitions demanding an immediate election were the preserve of Remainiacs and much of the Twitter left. So with Labour now in government, it is to no surprise then that it is now much of the right which is demanding another vote. A parliamentary petition to ‘call a general election’ has gone viral overnight, thanks to supportive posts by Elon Musk (who else?) among others. Numbers currently stand at more than 650,000 signatories: six times higher than the threshold of 100,000 required for a parliamentary debate. Wonder what the government response will be eh? Such petitions rarely, if ever, succeed in their goal and those

Businesses give Reeves’s Budget a ‘thumbs down’

What did businesses really think of Rachel Reeves’s Budget? Today we have one of the first economic indicators reflecting their responses to Labour’s tax and spend changes – as well as global events like the US presidential election. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell below 50 in November, which suggests the private sector economy is now contracting after a year of expansion.  Firms said that employment has been shrinking for two months and they are not replacing staff who leave voluntarily in order to offset the coming rises in the cost of workers. They also reported subdued customer demand – something shown in the retail sales figures Ross Clark examined this morning.  This

Can anything stop benefits spending hitting £120bn?

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecasts on Budget day included the startling figure that spending on health and disability benefits is set to pass £100 billion in five years’ time. Figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) today, which are based on a broader range of benefits and recipients, put the amount even higher: £120 billion.  The DWP’s figures include housing benefit for health and disability benefit recipients. In real terms, spending on this definition is forecast to rise by 20 per cent (or £18 billion) over the next five years. The share of government spending that goes on these benefits will be at a record level this year,

Ross Clark

The truth about ‘workshy’ Britain

Is ‘workshy Britain’ a mirage caused by dodgy statistics? That is what the left-leaning think tank the Resolution Foundation is claiming in a report published this morning. The Office for National Statistics (ONS), it says, has missed 930,000 people who are actually in work. The missing numbers, it asserts, are enough to raise Britain’s employment rate from 75 percent to 76 percent, with a corresponding fall in the combined total of people classified as unemployed or economically inactive. Until the 1990s, the concept on unemployment in Britain was pretty straightforward: it was the total number of people who were claiming unemployment benefit. Since then, however, the unemployment total has instead

Michael Simmons

Inflation surge hits Britain’s ailing economy

Inflation rose to 2.3 per cent in the year to October, up from 1.7 per cent in September – its lowest level since the early weeks of the first lockdown in 2021. This surge above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target was higher than economists and markets had expected. Worryingly, core inflation (which excludes more volatile goods like food and energy) has also increased slightly to 3.3 per cent – up from 3.2 per cent in September. The largest contributors to the rise in inflation were from the effects electricity and gas prices are having on household costs. The Office for National Statistics’ Chief Economist Grant Fiztner blamed

Ross Clark

Britain is eating itself to death

It is a fate which has been creeping up on Britain for years, but that doesn’t make it any the harder to bear when it becomes official. According to the OECD, we now have the lowest life expectancy in Western Europe. At 80.9, the average Brit now keels over more than three years earlier than the average Swiss (84.2), Spaniard (84.0) or Italian (83.8) – which are the top three countries in Europe. We have lower life expectancy than many significantly poorer countries such as Greece and Slovenia. We also live shorter lives than countries where assisted suicide is commonplace, like Belgium and the Netherlands. We also come out pretty

Ross Clark

Britain gave up on farmers centuries ago

Farmers are threatening a national strike over the inheritance tax increases, the first in history. Given how quickly the Labour government yielded to public sector unions, it is little wonder that the farmers have sensed that strikes are the best way to achieve their goals. By 1851, the proportion of Britain’s male workforce employed on the land had fallen to 22 per cent – lower than China in 2022 But it is not surprising that the government thought it would get away with stinging family farms for more inheritance tax. The voice of farmers (as opposed to landowning nobility) has long been weak in Britain for simple demographic reasons: few

Michael Simmons

How many farmers will be hit by Labour’s inheritance tax raid?

Tens of thousands of farmers will descend on Westminster in their tractors tomorrow to protest at inheritance tax changes that could see them pay death duties when they hand down their farms. The government doesn’t understand the fuss. It says they are just targeting wealthy land buyers trying to dodge tax. Meanwhile the farmers argue their way of life risks being wiped out. Who’s right? Two in five farmers are over the age of 60, so it’s not impossible the tax ends up having to be paid soon The government says the changes ‘are expected to affect the wealthiest 500 estates each year with smaller farms not affected’ – and

Is air pollution really the killer we think it is?

Ella Kissi-Debrah, a nine-year-old who died in February 2013 after suffering an asthma attack, is the first person in the UK to have air pollution cited on their death certificate. Two weeks ago, Ella’s mother finally settled her legal action against the government, which said it was ‘truly sorry’ for Rosamund Adoo-Kissi-Debrah’s loss and that it was committed to delivering an ‘ambitious clean air strategy’. Ella’s death has become a cause celebre among anti-car and anti-pollution activists. There is no doubt that Ella’s death was a terrible tragedy. But to blame air pollution alone – as some campaigners have done – for what happened risks ignoring the complexities of this case. Living

Fact check: How much will Trump’s tariffs hurt the UK? 

Last week the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said Britain ‘would be one of the countries most affected’ by Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, with growth cut by 0.7 percentage points in year one, 0.5 percentage points in year two, and inflation 3-4 points higher. But research from Oxford Economics today suggests the impact would be ‘limited’, even in the worst-case scenario.  During the election campaign, Trump suggested putting tariffs of 10 or 20 per cent on all imported goods – except those from China and Mexico, which would be stung with 60 or even 100 per cent rates. At the moment, average UK tariffs on goods from the US