SpecData

In a few hours, US election results will start to roll in, and while Britons this side of the pond have no say on the outcome they’ve been keen to give their opinions to prowling pollsters. New YouGov polling of 6,520 UK adults has revealed that almost four in ten Brits expect Kamala Harris to emerge victorious in this year’s election – regardless of who they would personally prefer to win. The survey shows that 38 per cent of participants are predicting a Harris victory while just under a third of Brits (31 per cent) think Donald Trump will be elected president a second time. Not that the gamblers quite

Every time a chancellor sits down after delivering their budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) releases their ‘economic and fiscal outlook’. What seems a boringly-named Whitehall document is actually a treasure trove of information about the state of the country. It reveals more about how we live our lives – and what lies ahead, than perhaps any other document apart from the decennial census. Buried within its pages are harbingers of the problems future governments will face. Page 129 of the nearly 200-page document carries one such alarming warning: a huge surge in the amount local authorities are likely to have to provide to fund children with special educational

Will the last person to leave the Tory party please turn out the lights? After an exodus of Conservative MPs from their jobs before the election (75 of them decided to quit rather than contest) we found out at today’s leadership announcement, courtesy of Bob Blackman, chair of the 1922 Committee, that members have bolted from the party too. The Tories don’t like to release their official membership numbers, but Blackman, just before announcing the results, said that the ‘total number of eligible electors’ (really meaning members) was 131,680. Now, if Mr Steerpike’s memory serves him correctly, in the 2022 run-off between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, there were allegedly

Some £22 billion of the £40 billion in tax rises the Chancellor announced this week will go straight to the NHS – an NHS that was already better funded than at any point in its history. It seems that no matter how many cash injections – huge or enormous – the health service gets, its problems continue. Could staff sickness be part of the problem? I’ve crunched the numbers for The Spectator’s data hub and this is what I found. The NHS is a notoriously stressful place to work and The Spectator’s analysis of sickness data for hospital and community services staff shows the toll it takes – as well as the huge

Casting his mind back to the election, Mr S recalls a heated debate about which party would raise taxes most. In the final televised debate before the national poll, Sir Keir Starmer was quick to accuse then-PM Rishi Sunak of ‘repeating a lie’ – that Labour were going to raise taxes by £2,000 per person. And, to be fair, he had a point: on Sunak’s own maths the Tories would have raised taxes by, er, £3,000 per person. Awkward… Mr S’s friends at The Spectator’s DataHub have crunched all the manifestos put out at the time to see just who really would be responsible for the greatest tax hikes – with

Did we lock down on a false premise? Yesterday was Ben Warner’s turn at the Covid Inquiry. He was an adviser, and one of the ‘tech bros’ brought in by Dominic Cummings to advise No. 10 on data. He was present at many of the early Sage – and other – meetings where the government’s established mitigation (herd immunity) plan was switched to the suppression (lockdown) strategy.  In Cummings’s evidence to the inquiry last week, he said that models didn’t play a big part in moving the government towards lockdown. Part of the written inquiry evidence supplied by his data man, Ben Warner’s, supports that too. The inquiry KC was

Next time there’s a pandemic, the advice of Dr Jenny Harries will be crucial. She runs the UK Health Security Agency, set up during Covid to replace the much-maligned Public Health England. In her interview with the Telegraph there seemed to be a penny-dropping moment where she suggested that Britain may be more like Sweden next time: What we saw with Omicron and later waves of the pandemic, and even now, is that people are good at watching the data and they will take action themselves. You can see it in footfall going down. People actually start to manage their own socialisation, and the [viral] waves flatten off and come down. She

Scotland’s first census results have finally been released: just 444 days after England managed to publish theirs. The once-a-decade count of the population was disastrous at worst and botched at best. As the first deadline for returning the census loomed last April, some 700,000 households – a quarter of the country – were threatened with £1,000 fines for not completing it. It had taken over a month to reach a 74 per cent response rate. Eleven years ago it took just ten days. Now that the results are in, the final response rate was 89 per cent: well short of the official target of 94 and the 97 per cent

Yet another of Rishi Sunak’s five targets looks to have slipped out of reach. Waiting lists for NHS treatment in England have climbed to another record high and now stand just shy of 7.6 million. There was a slight improvement for the longest waits: those waiting more than a year dropped slightly but still stand at a staggering 383,000. A very unlucky 314 have found themselves languishing on the lists for more than two years. Ministers gave the NHS a target to clear waits of more than 65 weeks by April next year, but there’s been little progress on those either. NHS managers were quick to blame strike action –

In his speech today, the Prime Minister gave five targets: ‘Halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce debt, cut [NHS] waiting lists and stop the boats.’ But are these real targets, or are they the old politician’s trick of promising what will happen anyway? Sunak’s job is made easier by the way economics is reported: everyone says what inflation is, but no one ever prints the forecasts. No one, that is, except The Spectator’s data hub. We like to think we show you what people think is coming, as well as what just happened. A trawl through the data hub shows that all of Sunak’s pledges are, in fact, statements of

The NHS has a crisis every winter, but this year’s is on a different scale. Before a wave of strikes puts patients and care at risk, stats released by NHS England this morning show a health service already on the brink. Last month, the number of 12-hour waits in A&E departments in England exceeded 37,800, having hit almost 44,000 the month before: a decrease, but a worrying number still. Waiting lists for consultant-led treatment have grown by 74,000 cases and now stand at 7.2 million. Ambulance waiting times are still far higher than they should be too: now at 48 minutes. All of this before the going really gets tough.