SpecData

Notes and observations on facts and figures in the news

As US border crossings fall, UK small boats hit record highs

Small boat crossings since the start of the year are at a record level. Yesterday 326 migrants arrived, bringing this year’s total to 3,224. Last year 2,983 migrants crossed the Channel over the same period. The number who have made the journey since Keir Starmer became Prime Minister, having promised to ‘stop the small boat crossings’, is 24,666. The figures are in stark contrast to the US, where Donald Trump recently announced that ‘the invasion of our country is over’ with attempts to illegally cross the US-Mexico border at a record low. Border agents had 8,326 encounters with migrants in February, Trump said; there were 190,000 in the same month last year.  One of

Michael Simmons

The problem of Britain’s idle generation

The number of young people not doing anything with their lives has hit its highest level in 11 years. Figures released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training – so-called NEETs – show that the number has reached just under one million in the last three months of 2024. Standing at 987,000, the number of NEETs is up by 110,000 since the end of 2023 – equivalent to a town the size of Oldham. The new data means that nearly one in seven Britons aged 16 to 24 are not in education, employment or training. The figures are

Kate Andrews

Inflation rises to 3% – should we panic?

Prices are rising. Inflation rose to 3 per cent in the twelve months leading up to January, up from 2.5 per cent in December. It’s a bigger jump than expected, with markets and the Bank of England expecting a rise to 2.8 per cent, driven largely by higher transport costs, as well as higher costs for food and non-alcoholic drinks. Is there reason to panic? While the CPI figures are higher than expected for January, they are not far out of line with the Bank’s latest forecast, which expects inflation to peak closer to 4 per cent this summer, due to rising energy costs. As Capital Economics notes this morning,

Michael Simmons

Strong pay growth will alarm the Bank of England

Britain’s workers have experienced strong pay increases for the third month in a row. Figures on the jobs market, just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), reveal that pay rose 6 per cent in the final three months of 2024 – the fastest pace of pay growth in over a year. Strip out inflation, and the average worker saw a 2.5 per cent pay increase – the highest real terms pay rise for three years. While more money in pockets is obviously good news for the workforce, these figures will be ringing alarm bells at the Bank of England. The Bank’s interest rate setters see pay increases as

Feminist coding and Armenian fashion week – my findings from Spaff

The Spectator Project Against Frivolous Funding, or Spaff, has been launched this week to shine a light on government waste. To help track down examples of frivolous spending, The Spectator has created a search engine that allows anyone to look at government transactions, foreign aid projects and procurement contracts all in one place for the first time. If you’re like me, and your eyes light up at the idea of rooting out government profligacy, the search engine is a treat. Here’s what I’ve found so far: Let’s start with the Arts Council, which has burnt through a tremendous amount of taxpayer cash. Particular funding highlights are a feminist creative coding

Steerpike

Reform support surges to new high, poll shows

Another day, another positive poll result for Reform. The latest Westminster voting intention poll from YouGov shows Nigel Farage’s party swooping into first place – again. More than a quarter of Brits would vote for the Reform crowd if there were a general election tomorrow, with the party up a point since last week and on its highest figure to date in a YouGov poll. Watch out Keir… The Labour lot received the backing of 25 per cent of poll respondents – also up a point on the previous week – to land in second place, while Kemi Badenoch’s boys in blue came third with just over a fifth of

Michael Simmons

Reform tops Spectator poll tracker

Nigel Farage’s Reform party are now out in front at the top of The Spectator data hub’s poll tracker. The latest update to our poll of polls puts Reform one point above Labour – on average – at 25 per cent of the vote with the Tories in third place at 22 per cent.  A flurry of polls in the last couple of weeks show continued decline in support for the Tories with nearly all of the benefits going to Reform. Meanwhile, support has continued to slip away from the Labour party. The result: Reform on top.  The poll that tipped them over the top came from FindOutNow who surveyed some 2,487

Michael Simmons

Record Channel crossings expose Starmer’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’

More migrants have illegally crossed the English Channel since 1 January than in any previous year for this period. So far in 2025, 1,344 migrants were detected crossing the Channel in small boats between 1 January and 4 February, beating the previous record of 1,339 in 2022. The figures published by Border Force – and tracked daily by The Spectator’s data hub – put paid to Keir Starmer’s promise to ‘smash the gangs’. A key part of Labour’s manifesto – and one of Starmer’s ‘first steps’ – was to ‘create a fair system and stop the small boat crossings’. Since Starmer took office last July, there have been 24,586 migrant crossings. The news comes despite

Trump’s popularity among Brits is rising

Back in July 2019, Donald Trump called Boris Johnson ‘Britain Trump’, before adding ‘that’s probably a good thing, they like me over there’. Awkwardly for Johnson at the time, this was certainly not the case for the majority of Brits, even among those who backed Boris. In 2019, 7 in 10 thought Donald Trump had been a bad president, including a majority of Conservative voters.  While Johnson might have squirmed at Trump’s endorsement back then, politicians in the UK today seem to be rushing to ingratiate themselves with the new administration. And it’s not just politicians changing their minds, British voters are also warming to Trump 2.0. New data from

Revealed: ONS blames Ring doorbells for dodgy jobs data

What caused the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to lose faith in its own jobs figures? After the pandemic, the ONS asked for the ‘national statistic’ quality mark to be taken off its estimates of whether Brits are working when response rates to its labour force survey collapsed. Fewer and fewer people were willing to invite an interviewer into their home to give them the 45-minute questionnaire. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said ‘it is a problem’ to not have accurate unemployment numbers when setting interest rates, while Lord Bridges, chair of the House of Lords eco­nomic affairs com­mit­tee, asked: ‘How are the Treasury and the bank to make

Michael Simmons

Is the UK prepared to welcome one million migrants a year?

One million people will migrate to the UK every year this decade. The result: the UK population will grow by nearly five million. Population projections, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning, show Britain’s population rising from an estimated 67.6 million now to 72.5 million in the middle of 2032 – driven almost entirely by migration.  Whilst the number of births and deaths will be roughly the same (6.8 million) in the next seven years, ONS statisticians estimate 10 million people will migrate to the UK with only five million due to leave. That will put net migration at 340,000 every year from the middle of 2028. 

Simon Cook

Pensioners have never had it so good

British pensioners are wealthier than ever. New figures from the Office for National Statistics, analysed by The Spectator’s data hub, show pensioner savings soaring whilst stagnating for those in work.  When the coalition government brought in the triple lock in 2011, it had a noble purpose – to protect pensioners from falling behind. The state pension had failed to keep pace with earnings, leaving many struggling. The ratchet effect – linking pensions to inflation, wage growth or 2.5 per cent, whichever was higher – promised to solve this. But almost 15 years later, has it delivered? And at what cost? Last week the ONS released its mammoth review of household wealth in Britain,

Michael Simmons

How to outsmart DeepSeek

For nearly a decade, the Chinese Communist Party has censored Winnie the Pooh, owing to internet memes comparing the slightly rotund President Xi Jinping to the cheerful yellow bear. So, what happens if you ask China’s new budget AI chatbot, DeepSeek, about him? Computer says no. But how rigorous were DeepSeek’s creators?  When we asked our first question, DeepSeek began to answer – only for its censorship to activate, overwriting the reply with an anodyne attempt to change the subject. Early adopters, however, had discovered a loophole: by replacing certain letters with numbers (e.g., A with 4, E with 3), users could bypass some of the restrictions. Here’s what happened

Michael Simmons

Will Chinese AI get the Treasury off the hook?

The launch of the Chinese chatbot DeepSeek has caused turmoil in the markets. The release of China’s newest AI – which appears to work as effectively as programmes developed in the West – saw tech stocks plummet when the market opened today. It hasn’t helped that DeepSeek was made for $6 million: pennies compared to its competition. All assumptions about this technology – the required parts, the assumed costs – have fallen apart and investors are panicking over what was already a muddled future for the development of AI. But in the midst of market turmoil, there is always a degree of stability. As markets lose confidence in emerging tech

Michael Simmons

Revealed: GPs are over-diagnosing mental health conditions

Britain is turning sadness into sickness. More than four in five GPs believe that the ups and downs of normal life are being wrongly redefined by society as mental disorders. The news, from the Centre for Social Justice’s (CSJ) report Change the Prescription, follows comments from Tony Blair, who said: ‘You’ve got to be careful of encouraging people to think they’ve got some sort of condition other than simply confronting the challenges of life.’ It seems reasonable to ask why GPs continue to prescribe pills that the vast majority of their profession consider to be inappropriate The findings in the CSJ’s report show that: The CSJ used polling company Savanta to

Steerpike

Reform tops poll for first time

As the new Labour government continues to struggle with voters, support for Reform UK only seems to be growing. New survey results released today by pollsters Find Out Now sees Nigel Farage’s party top the charts – beating both its Tory and Labour rivals. Talk about moving into pole position, eh? The new data – taken from a sample of 2,380 adults quizzed on Wednesday – shows 26 per cent of Brits back Reform UK, an increase of one percentage point since the 15 January. Coming second to the Farage-founded group is the Conservative party, with Kemi Badenoch’s boys in blue on 23 per cent. Meanwhile, in yet another set

Steerpike

Only a fifth of Brits optimistic about Labour

Another day, another set of poor poll results for Labour. At the start of its 2025 conference, the Institute for Government think tank has unveiled some rather revealing analysis by Deltapoll of 1,500 adults between the 17th and 20th January. It transpires that just 22 per cent of people believe Sir Keir Starmer’s government is being effective at improving their lives – compared to a third who now think that the previous Tory government was better. How the tables turn… Under the Labour lot, Brits are not optimistic about economic growth. While Chancellor Rachel Reeves joins world leaders in Davos for the World Economic Forum’s meet, less than a quarter

Michael Simmons

Employment suffers largest fall since pandemic

Rachel Reeve’s £25 billion National Insurance rise is beginning to bite. According to the latest data on our labour market, released this morning by the Office for National Statistics, payrolled employment fell by 47,000 last month — the sharpest fall since the pandemic. Meanwhile, the number of vacancies in the economy fell for the 30th consecutive period, unemployment rose to 4.4 per cent and there have been 21,000 more redundancies than in the same period a year ago. In a boost to those British workers still in jobs, pay is on the up. The ONS’s figures show that once inflation is removed the average worker experienced a 2.4 per cent pay rise

Simon Cook

Which president granted the most pardons? 

Joe Biden has bowed out of the White House with a slew of presidential pardons. Today they have been awarded to Anthony Fauci, General Mark Milley, a bunch of family members and an assortment of investigators from the 6 January riots – but Biden also controversially pardoned his son Hunter a month ago, despite promising not to. The presidential pardon has been a part of the constitution since the start – something that the Founding Fathers thought worth keeping from the British monarchy. Historically it’s been quite sparingly used. Most presidents pardoned no more than a few hundred through the first hundred years of the US – with the exception

High Court puts £1.3 billion in benefit savings in doubt

A government consultation on restricting access to disability benefits was ‘so unfair as to be unlawful’, the High Court ruled today, putting £1.3 billion a year of benefit savings in doubt.  The Work Capability Assessment is the gateway to Universal Credit health benefits and up to £4,900 a year for recipients. The Tories planned to change parts of the assessment relating to moving around and getting out of the house to take account of the rise of home and flexible working. Reforms were due to start from September this year, growing to affect 420,000 people who would be assessed as having a less severe level of incapacity, and another 30,000 who would be found to