SpecData

Notes and observations on facts and figures in the news

Ross Clark

The truth about ‘workshy’ Britain

Is ‘workshy Britain’ a mirage caused by dodgy statistics? That is what the left-leaning think tank the Resolution Foundation is claiming in a report published this morning. The Office for National Statistics (ONS), it says, has missed 930,000 people who are actually in work. The missing numbers, it asserts, are enough to raise Britain’s employment rate from 75 percent to 76 percent, with a corresponding fall in the combined total of people classified as unemployed or economically inactive. Until the 1990s, the concept on unemployment in Britain was pretty straightforward: it was the total number of people who were claiming unemployment benefit. Since then, however, the unemployment total has instead

Michael Simmons

Inflation surge hits Britain’s ailing economy

Inflation rose to 2.3 per cent in the year to October, up from 1.7 per cent in September – its lowest level since the early weeks of the first lockdown in 2021. This surge above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target was higher than economists and markets had expected. Worryingly, core inflation (which excludes more volatile goods like food and energy) has also increased slightly to 3.3 per cent – up from 3.2 per cent in September. The largest contributors to the rise in inflation were from the effects electricity and gas prices are having on household costs. The Office for National Statistics’ Chief Economist Grant Fiztner blamed

Ross Clark

Britain is eating itself to death

It is a fate which has been creeping up on Britain for years, but that doesn’t make it any the harder to bear when it becomes official. According to the OECD, we now have the lowest life expectancy in Western Europe. At 80.9, the average Brit now keels over more than three years earlier than the average Swiss (84.2), Spaniard (84.0) or Italian (83.8) – which are the top three countries in Europe. We have lower life expectancy than many significantly poorer countries such as Greece and Slovenia. We also live shorter lives than countries where assisted suicide is commonplace, like Belgium and the Netherlands. We also come out pretty

Ross Clark

Britain gave up on farmers centuries ago

Farmers are threatening a national strike over the inheritance tax increases, the first in history. Given how quickly the Labour government yielded to public sector unions, it is little wonder that the farmers have sensed that strikes are the best way to achieve their goals. By 1851, the proportion of Britain’s male workforce employed on the land had fallen to 22 per cent – lower than China in 2022 But it is not surprising that the government thought it would get away with stinging family farms for more inheritance tax. The voice of farmers (as opposed to landowning nobility) has long been weak in Britain for simple demographic reasons: few

Michael Simmons

How many farmers will be hit by Labour’s inheritance tax raid?

Tens of thousands of farmers will descend on Westminster in their tractors tomorrow to protest at inheritance tax changes that could see them pay death duties when they hand down their farms. The government doesn’t understand the fuss. It says they are just targeting wealthy land buyers trying to dodge tax. Meanwhile the farmers argue their way of life risks being wiped out. Who’s right? Two in five farmers are over the age of 60, so it’s not impossible the tax ends up having to be paid soon The government says the changes ‘are expected to affect the wealthiest 500 estates each year with smaller farms not affected’ – and

Is air pollution really the killer we think it is?

Ella Kissi-Debrah, a nine-year-old who died in February 2013 after suffering an asthma attack, is the first person in the UK to have air pollution cited on their death certificate. Two weeks ago, Ella’s mother finally settled her legal action against the government, which said it was ‘truly sorry’ for Rosamund Adoo-Kissi-Debrah’s loss and that it was committed to delivering an ‘ambitious clean air strategy’. Ella’s death has become a cause celebre among anti-car and anti-pollution activists. There is no doubt that Ella’s death was a terrible tragedy. But to blame air pollution alone – as some campaigners have done – for what happened risks ignoring the complexities of this case. Living

Fact check: How much will Trump’s tariffs hurt the UK? 

Last week the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said Britain ‘would be one of the countries most affected’ by Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, with growth cut by 0.7 percentage points in year one, 0.5 percentage points in year two, and inflation 3-4 points higher. But research from Oxford Economics today suggests the impact would be ‘limited’, even in the worst-case scenario.  During the election campaign, Trump suggested putting tariffs of 10 or 20 per cent on all imported goods – except those from China and Mexico, which would be stung with 60 or even 100 per cent rates. At the moment, average UK tariffs on goods from the US

Steerpike

Farage rated most favourable of Britain’s politicians

As Sir Keir Starmer’s fortunes go from bad to worse, things only seem to be improving for Nigel Farage. While Reform eye up a possible by-election in Runcorn and Helsby with hopes of getting a sixth MP into parliament, the party will have been given a boost today after new YouGov polling has revealed Farage has received the highest ‘favourable’ score in a poll of Britain’s most senior politicians. How very interesting. In the latest survey, carried out between 8-10 November, 30 per cent of Brits logged a positive opinion of Nige – the highest ‘favourable’ score of any senior politician on the list. The Reform leader came two points

Steerpike

Tories overtake Labour in first poll since Badenoch victory

When it rains, it pours for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour lot. The polls have gone downhill since Starmer’s army got into power, and the latest More In Common survey is no exception. In the newest survey of Westminster voting intention, it now transpires that the Tories have a two-point lead over Starmer’s lefty bunch – whose time in office seems to be going from bad to worse. In good news for new Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, approximately a third of Brits say they would back her party in a general election – the highest rating the Tories have seen since February – while just over a quarter would throw their

Michael Simmons

There are now seven million migrant workers in the UK

For the first time ever there are seven million migrant workers in Britain’s job market. Figures released by the ONS this morning show that more than one in five jobs in Britain is now filled by someone born overseas – despite a fall in EU workers since Brexit. Overall, that’s an increase of 183,000 – equivalent to a town the size of Warrington or a city the size of Southend – since the election, and up over one million since the first lockdown. The rest of this morning’s ONS release suggest the jobs market could be about to face a slowdown. The ONS stats show employers reducing hiring. Above inflation pay

Michael Simmons

How did pollsters get Trump’s victory so wrong?

Was Donald Trump’s win unexpected? Not if you followed the betting markets, which had Trump at a two-thirds chance of winning days out from the election. The polls, on the other hand, told a different story. Analysis of polls carried out in 15 competitive states in the three weeks before last Tuesday’s election shows that whatever the method of polling used, there was a clear and consistent bias in favour of the Democrats. Pollsters spent an estimated half a billion dollars (£388 million) on this election, but most polling methods were still biased towards Kamala Harris by around three percentage points. One method – recruiting participants by mail – managed

Simon Cook

Why do so many private school students get extra time in exams?

Are independent schools gaming the system to give a disproportionate advantage to their pupils in exams? That’s one possible inference from a new data release from Ofqual (the Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation) on access arrangements for school exams. The release sheds light on adjustments designed so that students with disabilities aren’t disadvantaged in assessments. This might include, for example, papers in braille for a blind student or allowing a student with dyslexia to use a word processor. Giving a pupil 25 per cent extra time to complete an exam is the most common adjustment schools can provide. The reasons commonly provided for the adjustment included English being a second language, physical disabilities that

Steerpike

Did 100 Labour activists scare off 400k Democrat voters?

Was it Labour wot lost it? It was less than a month ago, as Kamala Harris appeared to be riding high, that dozens of bright-eyed British Starmtroopers began descending on America. In a now-infamous LinkedIn post, Sofia Patel, Labour’s head of operations, urged others to join them in North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia. ‘I have nearly 100 Labour party staff (current and former) going to the US in the next few weeks,’ she boasted. ‘Let’s show the Democrats how to win elections!’ Fast forward three weeks and we know what happened next. The Trump campaign reacted in its usually understated way, threatening lawsuits, firing off bombastic threats and channelling

Simon Cook

Did lockdown make children overweight?

Every year, the government weighs and measures children in Reception (ages 4-5) and Year 6 (ages 10-11). The National Child Measurement Programme isn’t always popular with parents but it gives us priceless public health information on hundreds of thousands of children. With such a robust data set, it gives us the ability to look at how children change over time and test some of the theories that get thrown around about childhood growth and obesity. During the summer, a report from the Food Foundation claimed that the average height of five year olds was falling and had been since 2013. Gordon Brown thundered that this was down to ‘food bank Britain’ and

How Donald did it: the road to the White House in charts and graphs

Donald Trump has become the first president since Grover Cleveland to be elected to non-consecutive terms in the White House. But how did he do it? Pollsters and pundits had predicted a close-run thing with Harris ahead in key states but in the end, the betting markets were right: Donald Trump swept to victory. When Big Ben bongs at 10 p.m. on election night in the UK we’re told straight away who the next prime minister will be. American exit polls don’t quite work like that. Instead, AP and Fox News’s exit poll showed us that the economy and immigration were the top issues for voters. But another poll for

Donald Trump declares victory

Donald Trump has declared victory in the US election after winning the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. ‘America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,’ the Republican candidate told supporters. ‘This is a magnificent victory for the American people, that will allow us to make America great again,’ he said at the rally in Florida. Trump has still not secured the 270 Electoral College votes he needs to confirm victory, but the path to the White House looks increasingly narrow for his Democrat rival Kamala Harris. The Republicans have taken control of the Senate from the Democrats, having turned seats in Ohio and West Virginia.

Steerpike

Brits predict a Kamala win as Americans go to the polls

In a few hours, US election results will start to roll in, and while Britons this side of the pond have no say on the outcome they’ve been keen to give their opinions to prowling pollsters. New YouGov polling of 6,520 UK adults has revealed that almost four in ten Brits expect Kamala Harris to emerge victorious in this year’s election – regardless of who they would personally prefer to win. The survey shows that 38 per cent of participants are predicting a Harris victory while just under a third of Brits (31 per cent) think Donald Trump will be elected president a second time. Not that the gamblers quite

How accurate are the US election polls?

Is Donald Trump going to lose Iowa? That’s the conclusion many US pundits came to after a bombshell poll over the weekend. That poll, conducted by the psephologist Ann Selzer, put Kamala Harris three points ahead of Trump in Iowa, despite Trump having comfortably won the state by almost ten points in the past two presidential elections. So Iowa could tonight return to swing state status. In past elections voters in the state have backed Reagan, Clinton, Obama, and Trump: now they might turn to Harris. However, at the same time as the Selzer poll was published, a contradictory but less-covered poll indicated another strong Trump victory. This poll from Emerson College concluded that

Steerpike

Gamblers are putting their money on a Trump triumph

It’s polling day across the pond and Steerpike is keen to have a flutter. Opinion polling in the US election suggests the safe money is on Kamala Harris, but his fellow gamblers seem to be telling a different story. Data analysed by Mr S’s friends in the Speccies’ data dungeon shows money is pouring in behind The Donald. Trump has a nearly two thirds chance of returning to the White House in January, according to an analysis of implied probabilities. Do the punters know something the pundits don’t?  Mr S will be tracking the betting markets every five minutes and updating the graph below…