Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Saturday

Steerpike Steerpike

New poll predicts dire results for Tories

Oh dear. Another week, another bad poll for the Tories. The Conservative party’s prospects have plummeted further, with polling suggesting Rishi Sunak’s party is on track to win fewer than 100 seats. Labour, meanwhile, could win 468 — resulting in a rather astounding 286-seat majority. But that’s not the worst news for Sunak: Labour is very narrowly behind him, less than 2.5 percentage points, in his own seat. Ouch.  The Survation MRP poll, which quizzed 15,000 people, suggests Labour may win 45 per cent of the vote share, 19 points ahead of the Tories. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are on track to win a mere 98 seats. The Tories will win

Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O'Flynn

Rishi Sunak only has himself to blame for the rise of Reform

By their rugby analogies shall ye know them: when Boris Johnson was asked about his chance of becoming prime minister, he spoke of the ‘the ball coming loose at the back of the scrum’. That characterisation sought to disguise his burning passion to reach the top. Getting to be PM would be the result of a mere happy turn of events and not something he would ever plot for, he implied. No doubt this will have prompted hollow laughter among those previously exposed to the white heat of his ambition. Sunak has confirmed himself as being absolutely terrible at politics But it turns out that Rishi Sunak’s capacity for self-delusion

Steven Fielding

How Starmer wants to reverse Thatcher’s legacy

Members of Labour’s frontbench have recently fallen over themselves to acclaim Margaret Thatcher. Hot on the heels of Rachel Reeves feting the Iron Lady’s determination to reverse Britain’s decline, David Lammy lauded the woman who defeated his party three times as a ‘visionary leader’. But like Mark Antony’s attitude to Julius Caesar, Reeves and Lammy come to bury Thatcher rather than to praise her. This appropriation of a Conservative icon like Thatcher is highly mischievous Labour’s shadow ministers invoke the ‘Iron Lady’ because they know a certain kind of voter, one Labour needs to help it win power, still goes all of a quiver at the mere mention of her

Debbie Hayton

We’d be wise to ignore the Council of Europe’s transgender nonsense

The Council of Europe might claim to be focussed on human rights, democracy and the rule of law, but lately the Strasbourg-based human rights organisation has been championing a new cause: the propagation of gender identity ideology. A paper released earlier this month by the Council’s Commissioner for Human Rights should ring alarm bells across the continent. Human Rights and Gender Identity and Expression pulls no punches. The key recommendations are alarming, for example: Recognise the identity of trans school-age children and students in school settings, regardless of their legal gender/sex, including by allowing them to use their own names and pronouns, dress as they wish, and participate in sports

Friday

John Curtice

Why Labour is 99 per cent likely to form the next government

Academic conferences – even ones about politics – rarely make the news. This week’s annual conference of UK political scientists at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow talked about many interesting topics, including the link between football and populism in Southern Europe and the role that comedy plays in the formation of Scottish identity. But such presentations rarely trouble the Twittersphere, let alone the front page of the newspapers. Labour are on average 19 points ahead of the Conservatives In my own case, I was talking about whether the next UK general election will be dominated by voters’ views on what political scientists call ‘valence’ issues, that is, things like

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

What’s happening in the Darien Gap?

40 min listen

Freddy is joined by evolutionary biologist and host of The DarkHorse Podcast Bret Weinstein. They discuss the Darien Gap, an area of Panama which has become a focal point for America’s migrant crisis. Bret has spent some time investigating the area, what’s going on? 

James Heale James Heale

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson resigns after sex offence charges

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has this afternoon quit as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party after he was charged over historical sexual allegations. A 57-year-old woman has also been charged with aiding and abetting in connection with the alleged offences. Both were arrested on Thursday morning by detectives and were questioned before being charged on Thursday night. They are now due to appear in court next month. In a statement, the DUP says that: ‘The party chairman has received a letter from Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP confirming that he has been charged with allegations of a historical nature and indicating that he is stepping down as Leader of the Democratic Unionist

Oscar Edmondson

Will Sue Gray be running Keir Starmer’s government?

16 min listen

There is anxiety in parts of Starmer’s circle about Sue Gray appointing jobs in a Starmer-led Downing Street. When she’s in No.10 she’ll ‘be in her natural territory and running rings around everyone’, a former colleague told Katy Balls in her profile of ‘the Gray lady’ for The Spectator this week. How is Sue Gray shaking things up as Keir Starmer’s chief of staff?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Jill Rutter, former senior civil servant.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson. 

Ian Acheson Ian Acheson

Who will take responsibility for our appalling prisons?

We know our prison system is awash with drugs but just what are they smoking at the Ministry of Justice? A shocking story in the Times yesterday revealed what a desperate state Britain’s jails are in. Paul Morgan-Bentley, an undercover reporter, was hired at breakneck speed to work as a uniformed Operational Support Grade (OSG) escort at beleaguered HMP Bedford. He lifted the lid on a security nightmare. Drugs were being smoked openly in front of officers A catalogue of errors and incompetence emerged. He wasn’t security cleared before starting his sensitive post. He had access to prisoners in this Category B jail after a day’s training where even his

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

There’s nothing conservative about the Tories’ free childcare rollout

On Monday, the UK welfare state will expand to cover 15 hours of free childcare for working parents with two-year-olds. In September, this will be extended to infants of nine months or more. Next year, cover doubles to 30 hours. The total cost: £5.3 billion a year. It’s the ‘largest ever expansion of childcare in England’s history,’ says Gillian Keegan, the Education Secretary. This Easter weekend we see the bizarre spectacle of Tories attacking Labour from the left What is conservative about this? Nothing, of course. It pushes up costs and taxes. But the idea, at the time, was to to do this before Labour proposed it. To shoot Labour’s fox.

Katy Balls Katy Balls

The Anne Jenkin Edition

33 min listen

Anne Jenkin was born in Essex to quite the political family, three of her grandparents were in the House of Lords, and two of them in the Commons as well. Her career in Westminster began in the 1970s and in 2005 she co-founded Women2Win with future Prime Minister Theresa May to encourage more women to get into politics and stand as Conservative candidates. She was made a life peer in 2011 for services to charity and politics. 

Jawad Iqbal

Humza Yousaf isn’t cut out to be SNP leader

It is now exactly a year since Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s First Minister, rose to the pinnacle of Scottish politics. Pretty much everything that has happened since entitles those who doubted his leadership skills, political judgment and basic competence to mutter ‘I told you so’. Even his most diehard supporters within the SNP must be starting to wonder what his leadership is all about. The warning signs were there from the start. Yousaf quickly emerged as the favourite to replace Nicola Sturgeon following her shock resignation last February. He simply wanted the job more than anyone else, and billed himself as the continuity candidate. He came under sustained attack from Kate

Mahmoud Saikal

How to stop illegal immigration from Afghanistan

Spring is here. For Afghanistan that means more violence by the Taliban and other terrorists – and more refugees leaving our country on small boats for the United Kingdom and elsewhere.   As a proud patriot it gives me nothing but shame to see the name Afghanistan ever more prominent in British Home Office data sets on illegal immigration. The latest published figures show that in 2023 Afghanistan was the source of more immigrants reaching Britain across the Channel on ‘small boats’ than any other nation: 5,545 out of 29,437 – roughly one in five. The Taliban are a powerful pump for the illegal immigrants roiling British politics A year

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

The French want weed, not wine

Across France this Easter families will gather to eat, drink and, in many cases, smoke drugs. There are five million regular cannabis smokers in France and a further 600,000 who are classified as cocaine addicts. The number of people who consume wine on a regular basis is just over seven million (11 per cent of the population), a figure that has been in freefall this century. In the past 60 years the consumption of wine has plummeted in France, from 120 litres per person per year in 1960 to less than 40 litres in 2020. The beret and string of onions round the neck was always an Anglo-Saxon stereotype about

Robin Ashenden

Where have the West’s liberal values gone?

Russia is ramping up preparations for a ‘large-scale’ war with Nato. That’s the verdict of the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, which reports several indications that Moscow is preparing for war with Nato ‘not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline’ than many Western analysts believed. Is the West ready for war? Its self-doubt about what it stands for makes it seem worryingly unlikely. Echoing the words of General Sir Patrick Sanders, head of the British armed forces, that to fight in any such war the UK would need a ‘citizen army’, Latvian Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins has suggested Britain introduce conscription to prepare for any threat. Meanwhile

Thursday

Iain Macwhirter

Who would trust Holyrood with legalising euthanasia?

Would you trust this lot with assisted dying? The Scottish parliament’s record on issues of personal liberty has been pretty dire. Yet MSPs seem mustard-keen to introduce medically-supervised suicide as proposed by the Liberal Democrat MSP, Liam McArthur. His Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill, published today, is the third such Bill to hit Holyrood and the betting is that this one will go the distance. I’m not entirely sure this particular parliament possesses the moral standing to legislate on pot holes, let alone euthanasia ‘Too often’, says Alex Cole-Hamilton, the Scottish Lib Dem leader. ‘Dying people are facing traumatic deaths that harm both them and those they leave behind.’ He’s not

Andrew Tettenborn

Barristers should be allowed to join the Garrick

The Garrick Club affair has taken a new and slightly worrying twist, this time courtesy of – of all bodies – the Bar Council. Hot on the heels of calls for judges to resign en masse from the club because it remains single-sex, the Council now apparently wants to go even further. It is hinting that it may forbid any member of the Bar from being a member. Its menacing words bear quoting in full:  For now, it is a matter for individuals to determine whether or not membership of an institution, such as the Garrick Club, is compatible with the views they espouse in their professional lives, but this may change. As

Lara Prendergast Lara Prendergast

Easter special: how forgiveness was forgotten

36 min listen

This week: how forgiveness was forgotten, why the secular tide might be turning, and looking for romance at the British museum.  Up first: The case of Frank Hester points to something deep going on in our culture, writes Douglas Murray in the magazine this week. ‘We have never had to deal with anything like this before. Any mistake can rear up in front of you again – whether five years later (as with Hester) or decades on.’ American lawyer and author of Cancel Culture: the latest attack on free speech, Alan Dershowitz, joins the podcast to discuss whether forgiveness has been forgotten. (02:11) Then: Will and Lara take us through some

Oscar Edmondson

Labour’s pledge to ‘take back control’

10 min listen

Labour kicked off their local elections campaign today with a joint op-ed from Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner in the Times promising to empower localities and put an end to the regional divide. This is all encompassed in their Take Back Control Act … where have we heard that before? Rather than a seamless launch, the Labour leader has been met with difficult questions over Angela Rayner’s tax affairs and the suggestion that the shadow education secretary could scrap the £4 billion expansion of free childcare.  Oscar Edmondson speaks to Fraser Nelson and James Heale.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson.