Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
At his monthly press conference, Gordon Brown is keeping up the pretence that the polls had nothing to do with his decision not to call an election. But this is completely absurd as virtually every newspaper was told that Brown was going to study the polling data and then make up his mind.
Perhaps, the best guide to the mood in Brown world this morning comes in Jackie Ashley’s column in The Guardian. Ashley admits that Brown has had a terrible week and that his TV performance was less than convincing. Yet, she writes that Brown is unlikely to take his frustrations out on those who so stoked up the possibility of an early election: “Contrary to reports, he isn’t privately furious with ministers like Alexander or Balls; but he knows, and they know, they have all taken one heck of a hit. The young Turks are inevitably becoming the fall guys because there’s a lot of resentment, not least from other senior
Official: Gordon Brown bottles it. The News of the World poll showing the Tories with a six point lead in the marginals may have something to do with it. Tee hee: Alex Salmond calls Brown a “big feartie”. Also: “Those whom the gods seek to destroy they first render ridiculous, and this shambles leaves Gordon Brown looking totally ridiculous. “Labour are a shambles north of the Border, and shaky south of the Border.” UPDATE: Isaac Chotiner says I over-estimate the importance of this. Perhaps. It’s true that when the election is held in 2009 this will be ancient history. But it does damage Brown and that will hurt him –
Now the Brown fight back begins. I hear tomorrow he will announce plans to accept 500 Iraqis as asylum seekers, thus helping the translators. Generous? Not if you consider that 1,550 immigrants settle in Britain each day, and that 520 Iraqis work for the Ministry of Defence. And what about Bosnian and Afghan staff? We’ll have to keep a very close eye on his announcements in the next few days.
The details of the YouGov / Sunday Times poll show just how dangerous a November election would have been for Labour. The Tories are ahead 41 to 38, but amongst those certain to vote their lead rises to 45-36: very close to the ten point advantage they need for a working majority. The Tories also lead by significant margins—10 and 20 points, respectively—on what would have been the two most important issues for voters in a November election, crime and immigration. While the Tories also hold a very narrow lead on who would be most likely to raise people’s standard of living. There are good numbers in the poll for
The Marr-Brown interview made me realise Brown wasn’t ready for this election either. His claim that the Tory inheritance tax proposal would have “led to economic disarray” is laughable and would have perished on the doorsteps. Yet, he will–“of course”–look at inheritance tax again (expect him to raise the threshold, copying the Tory policy). He says he does “not accept” that he will take a hit for this fiasco. He’d better not read an opinion poll for the next few weeks, then.
Just left the Andrew Marr Show, where I was on the sofa discussing the day’s big story before the full broadcast of Andrew’s pre-recorded interview with Gordon, in which the PM called off the snap election. As I argue in today’s Sunday Telegraph, it is only a fortnight since Brown was on the very same show, insisting coquettishly that he would not be providing a ‘running commentary’ on his election planning. Now it looks as though it is he himself who is ‘running’ – from the people’s judgment which, his pollsters told him, could not be assumed to be positive. So often impressive since he entered Number Ten, Gordon looked
Gordon Brown’s performance on Sunday AM this morning did little to repair the damage that has been done to his reputation. Brown kept stressing that he had a “duty to consider” an early election but never explained why it took him so long to rule it out. He talked endlessly about how he wanted to set out his vision for the country but didn’t give even a hint of what it was. While his insistence that “the easiest thing I could have done is called an election” sounded disingenuous in the light of this morning’s polls. David Cameron’s charge that Brown is “treating people like fools” will resonate if Brown
Blackpool Such is the strange rhythm of politics that this turns out to be the most successful Conservative conference for many years. George Osborne, who only a week ago people kept telling me was a disaster, put in a commanding performance. His promise to lift the threshold of inheritance tax to £1 million did not provoke contempt for reverting to a ‘core vote’ strategy. Some say this is because, though not many pay the tax now, millions expect to one day. I suspect, too, that people actually like the idea that inheritance tax threatens them because the threat is a sort of status symbol. To say that you worry about
The Tories don’t really want a November election, but after a successful conference – producing a bounce that has them level with Labour in one poll and three points behind in another – they’re quite happy to see Gordon Brown hoist on his own petard. Brown’s dance of the seven veils on the question of an election has damaged his authority. It’s not a very Prime Ministerial carry-on. Matthew Parris is, I think, absolutely right in Saturday’s Times: Unless he calls and wins the general election for which he has whetted our appetites, the Prime Minister’s standing will suffer the sort of chronic damage that arises when small doubts are
David Cameron takes a decidedly more aggressive tone in a piece he has written for tomorrow’s Sunday Times than he did on TV earlier. He writes, “what will now be remembered is farcical weeks of secret briefings, hurried policy announcements and, most shamefully of all, the exploitation of the British troops in Iraq for party political ends.” The Iraq trip really was where everything started to go horribly wrong for Brown. It looked crass and calculating and showed just how far he was prepared to go for party advantage. It is doubtful whether after the last week Brown can rebuild the level of public trust that he enjoyed in the first few
The News of the World front page tomorrow blasts, “Poll kills election.” The details of the poll, which the News of the World kindly advanced to us, are grim for Labour and explain why Gordon Brown felt he couldn’t take the risk of going early. 77% think the government has done a bad job on immigration, 63% think the same on law and order, 62% on tax and 52% on the NHS. The one encouraging number for Brown is that only 37% of the public think the Conservatives are ready for government. However, one has to assume that this number will rise between now and 2009. Ian Kirby reports that Douglas
It just keeps getting better and better for the Conservatives and worse and worse for Gordon Brown. A new YouGov poll shows that the Tories are now 3 points ahead of Labour—a remarkable turnaround from last Saturday’s YouGov poll which had them 11 points behind. The only potential dampener on Tory spirits tonight is the fact that the Lib Dems might now move against Ming seeing as there is almost certainly to be an election until 2009. As Tim points out, Lib Dem support has collapsed—it is down to a mere 11 percent. One has to imagine that pretty much any Lib Dem leader would do better than Ming with Nick
Adam Boulton, political editor of Sky News, is famously fair minded. That makes his verdict on Brown simply devastating. He has just described this as “one of the worst blows to a serving prime minister that I can remember in quarter of a century of covering politics.” He blames the debacle on Brown’s advisers. “If I was giving him any advice tonight it would be ‘sack the lot of them’”. And he’s hiding away while Ming and Cameron are taking questions. “It’s not leadership as most people will understand it.” This is just a nuclear bomb.
A relaxed, confident looking David Cameron has just been on the BBC hitting all the right notes about Gordon Brown’s climb-down over the election date. For Brown, the next few weeks will be excruciating. He is being denounced as weak by all and sundry while his reputation for straight-talking is in tatters. Never again will his opponents cower in front of him. The $64,000 question is whether this error by Brown will actually weigh on the minds of voters as they go to the polls in 2009. Labour MPs have been fanning out across the TV studios this afternoon to dismiss this as a mere Westminster story claiming that it will
Why did Gordon Brown call off the election? The News of the World, where I am a columnist, tells us tomorrow. It is the only newspaper to have polled in the marginal seats (a horribly expensive process) and the results exposes the type of information which Brown has been chewing over. The results are devastating. There is a six-point Tory lead in the marginals – yes, a six point Tory lead: 44% to 38%. It suggests that, if Brown did go, he’d lose his majority. Labour would still be the biggest party, with 306 seats to the 246 for the Tories. It also confirms what ministers told me anecdotally:
Gordon Brown has called off the election. He may appear on Andrew Marr tomorrow to tell us why. I am in a rather unusual position here – I can tell you why, but not until 4.45pm. Stay tuned.
As Gordon Brown prepares for tomorrow’s crunch meeting on whether or not to call an election the case against going early is getting stronger. A poll for the Daily Politics found that 57% of voters think Brown would be putting Labour’s interests ahead of those of the country if he went now; suggesting that Labour might not get the bump government normally do at the beginning of a campaign. Labour MPs in marginal seats are now telling the press that they don’t want an election this year and the early polling in the key marginals is reportedly “too close for comfort”. Hedged against that is the diffuclty of backing down
Gordon Brown has ruled out an election this year following a poll of marginal seats that showed Labour significantly behind the Tories. No election is now expected until 2009. Coffee House has reaction and analysis to this news. Click here to read the latest from our political team.
For a party still facing defeat at the next general election, the Conservatives left Blackpool feeling remarkably upbeat. ‘It’s the spirit of Gallipoli,’ said a veteran of William Hague’s election campaign. ‘They’re united against Brown,’ mused one shadow Cabinet member. Neither image is quite right. This was no deluded optimism, no awestruck reaction to David Cameron’s speech. The mood at the conference had changed long before he stood up on Wednesday. Something had gone badly right. The week started with the party in a murderous mood, with talk at the candidates’ party centring on who would replace the evidently doomed Mr Cameron. He had focused too much on image, ran the