Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Brown survives PMQs | 14 May 2008

Last week, I said that Cameron should embark on a “save the Brown” exercise and be dull in PMQs, so as to cast the Prime Minister a lifeline. Perhaps he agrees. He was quite flat today, and Brown quite defiant. As always, I measure them against their usual standards – but this was not the scene of a Brown meltdown… Brown started on Burma, which – if you ask me – he should have stuck to non-stop in the last few days. “I have asked Ban Ki Moon to hold an emergency summit such as Kofi Annan held. I have asked him – and I believe he is considering this

James Forsyth James Forsyth

How low can they go?

Jonathan Freedland’s piece in The Guardian suggesting that it might be best for Labour to lose the next election is well worth reading. But this section particularly jumped out at me: One senior cabinet minister’s first reaction to the 24% share in the May 1 polls was to say, “It can get worse.” He conjures the figure 16% as a possible rock-bottom for Labour’s standing. One gets the feeling that the panic has truly kicked in with some. Brown’s fate hinges on whether they are resigned to their fate or if they see a way to save themselves and their party. 

Peter Hoskin

PMQs video

Thanks to the indispensable Politics Home, here’s footage of the Brown vs Cameron exchange in PMQs today.  Expect Fraser’s write-up shortly.

Peter Hoskin

Are people seeing through Darling’s new clothes?

The biggest worry surrounding Darling’s 10p tax con is that people will fall for it; that it will be the vote-winner Brown so clearly wants it to be.  There were immediate signs yesterday that this might be the case.  I highlighted a Political Betting graph which showed that – in the betting markets, at least – Labour’s hopes of winning in Crewe and Nantwich had been boosted by Darling’s move.  However (and thanks to CoffeeHouser ‘Ian C’ for pointing this out), a new graph over at Political Betting reveals that the markets have settled right back to where they were before Darling’s statement.  The con-trick may not have worked, after all. I think Mike Smithson’s exactly

Peter Hoskin

Morning, Darling

There’s plenty of comment rattling around this morning on Darling’s 10p tax compensation. The Guardian calls it “crude, simple and costly”, whilst the Mirror strains to remind us, “The bottom line is that 22 million low and middle-income earners will be £120 better off this year.” The best take, though, is Peter Riddell’s in the Times. Here’s his “bottom line”: “So the Treasury will have to raise a very large amount next year. This means either higher taxes or lower spending since higher borrowing cannot be continued. The public finances are not in a healthy state after the sharp rise in public spending since 2000. The Institute for Fiscal Studies

Tuesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Where’s Blair?

Of course he’s off saving the world or, as Robert Harris puts it today, “He is already on to the next big thing in his career, with the premiership (in Alan Bennett’s wonderful phrase) merely a stage in his spiritual journey.” Time to give this a fresh airing then: Harris makes a serious point: the absence of any kind of Blair legacy is itself a problem for Gordon Brown. And it’s also the case that despite Brown’s hapless performance and his seemingly doomed ministry I’ve yet to hear a single person express the wish that if only that nice Mr Blair could return… [Hat-tip: Clive Davis]

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Mocking Balls

David Cameron’s joke-filled appearance before the Commons press gallery is getting pretty good write ups. Boulton and Co highlights one joke that I rather imagine would go down as well with certain members of the Cabinet as it did with the hacks:  “Ed Balls is the man with the most appropriate surname since Trevor Crapper invented the lavatory.” This might be Punch and Judy politics but it does serve the Tories’ tactical purposes. First, gags like this help keep Tory morale high. Second, Balls tends to rise to the bait—he did so with disastrous effect during Cameron’s response to the Budget. Third, Balls is phenomenally close to Gordon but a divisive figure

Peter Hoskin

Darling boosts Labour’s Crewe hopes

Political Betting have put together a neat graph, showing the effect that Alistair Darling’s 10p compensation package has had on Labour chances in Crewe and Nantwich.  As far as the betting markets are concerned, the move has boosted Labour hopes.  Which is exactly what Brown & Darling wanted in the first place… 

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The start of scorched-earth policy?

So, does this make Crewe the most expensive by-election in British history? It will cost £2.7 billion for Darling’s move to try win back votes lost from his 10p tax debacle – but the money isn’t there. So what does he do? Blithely slaps it on the national deficit. Now and again, Labour bangs on about a “black hole” in Tory proposals of one or two billion. And yet they jack up the national debt in this way without so much as blinking. I suppose the more Brown thinks Labour will lose the next election, the more minded he will be to vandalise the public finances. This may be the

Peter Hoskin

Women and politics poll

I’d recommend you take a look at Grazia magazine’s new poll – ‘Women and politics survey 2008’.  As you’d expect – with a title like that – all the respondents are women, and they come out broadly in favour of Cameron & Co.  For instance, 33 percent would vote Tory if there was a general election tomorrow, compared to only 14 percent for Labour.  And 26 percent think David Cameron will keep his promises, compared to 16 percent for Brown.  And that’s before we get to which politician would ‘deliver the best performance in bed’… There is one grain of comfort, though, for Brown.  He beats Cameron on the question

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The high cost of living

In his highly entertaining press conference yesterday, Ed Balls referred to “low inflation.” Today’s inflation bombshell makes such a claim impossible. Against expectations of 2.6% CPI for April, the figure is 3% – the highest rise in six years. This is hugely political. The cost of living is top doorstep issue – so it’s important to establish why Gordon Brown speaks with forked tongue when he blames it all “global turbulence”. Today’s inflation report repays closer examination. My thoughts:- 1) Plunging pound. Since Brown took over the pound has nosedived and is now 12% weaker in general – literally Black Wednesday magnitude. Who’s to blame for that? Opec? Bush?  Brown

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What’s next? | 13 May 2008

John Rentoul, who has always been sceptical of Brown’s chances and abilities, thinks that Frank Field’s attack on Brown might have been a tipping point: “But his personal unkindness may have broken some kind of barrier, and now all the scenarios for how Brown might go are being canvassed and seem plausible. What, now, if ministers were to resign, saying that the party cannot win with Brown as leader?” In the febrile atmosphere at Westminster at the moment, anything seems possible. Rumours that would have been dismissed out of hand just a few weeks ago, now seem plausible. If Labour does lose the Crewe and Nantwitch by-election, the temperature will

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Brown loses his Compass

Given the speed and nature of current events, there is a real danger that we in the press start to hyperventilate, declaring the Brown government doomed before breakfast every day. But the piece by Neal Lawson, the chair of Compass, in The Independent calling on Brown to return to the Treasury for the good of the movement does seem like a seismic moment. (Although, Compass has been critical of Brown recently this is the first time it has called on the leader to step down)  Compass cannot be dismissed as a fringe group. It is representative of the broad left—just look at the list of speakers it has lined up

Monday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Brown Chronicles: The Laughing Stock Years

Memo to Gordon Brown. This sot of caper explains why people are beginning to think you are in fact a fool: div#related-article-links p a, div#related-article-links p a:visited { color:#06c; } Gordon Brown will not receive the Dalai Lama in Downing Street in an effort to avoid confrontation with China over Tibet, The Times has learnt. The Prime Minister will, instead, see the Tibetan spiritual leader in Lambeth Palace, home of the Archbishop of Canterbury, enabling him to claim to the Chinese that he is receiving the Dalai Lama in a spiritual rather than political capacity. What is the point of this nonsense? It’s like the decision to sign the Lisbon

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Balls on everything

Good old Ed Balls. He has just given a lobby briefing attacking Tory education plans – at least that was his plan. But he ended up speaking about everything under the sun – Cherie’s pregnancy, the wickedness of Frank Field, the hopelessness of Crewe, the errors of the 10p Budget, why Labour is “behind the curve” on family finances. He walked into bear trap after bear trap. The lobby loved it, unable to believe their luck. All of this eclipsed his orginal attack message. As CoffeeHousers know, I’m keen on education so I, at least, wanted to know how Balls would attack the Tory policy. He suggested teachers would get

Peter Hoskin

Labour supporters think Brown should go

If you want an idea of the pessimism and despair among Labour supporters at the moment,  do check out this running LabourHome poll.  Its headline finding, so far?  That some 49 percent of respondents think Brown should be sacked, as opposed to 34 percent who think he should stay on.  49 percent also believe that the 42-day detention plan should be dropped, and only 10 percent think the HQ team should remain as it is.  Hardly a grassroots endorsement, then, for our beleaguered Prime Minister.

Peter Hoskin

Offensive defence

And so – predictably – Ed Balls defends Brown against the allegations made by Frank Field yesterday.  Or, rather, he sticks the boot into Field, hoping that amounts to the same thing.  Here’s what he had to say: “I think people took [Field’s] views [about the 10p tax row] at face value. They thought that to negotiate with him was the right thing to do… …I think people could look at what he was saying a few weeks ago and believe at that time that his intentions were honourable… …As for what he said this morning I think I leave you to draw your own conclusions from that… We have

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Livingstone’s revenge

Ken’s article in The Guardian last week, emphasising how Labour had done better in London than the rest of the country, strongly suggests that he is not done with public life yet. Earlier today, someone with an insight into his thinking suggested a route for Ken back into electoral politics. The theory goes that Lee Jasper is acting as a stalking horse for Ken in Vauxhall and that if Kate Hoey is de-selected for taking a role in the Johnson administration and flirting heavily with supporting him before the election Ken would then step in to this very safe seat. In the meantime, Ken will use his forthcoming book to

Matthew Dancona

Breaking up

Politics is moving at an astonishing pace. Frank Field has upped the ante with his extraordinary remarks on the BBC World Service – that Gordon will not lead Labour into the next election, and that he should ask his loved ones when would be best to leave. Every time the PM raises his head above the parapet he is walloped by another memoir or hit by shrapnel from a backbench rebellion, actual or threatened. It will be hard to top Alan Johnson’s response on the Today programme. Evan Davis asked him about the turmoil and the Health Secretary actually said: “You’re breaking up.” Superb.