Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Friday

Peter Hoskin

A new front-runner

As Iain Dale points out, Harriet Harman has overtaken David Miliband as the bookies’ favourite to succeed Gordon Brown.  Here’s the full list from Ladbrokes: Harriet Harman — 3/1 David Miliband — 7/1 Jack Straw — 5/1 Jon Cruddas — 8/1 Alan Johnson — 8/1 James Purnell — 12/1 John Denham — 12/1 Alan Milburn — 16/1 Ed Balls — 16/1 John Reid — 16/1 Andy Burnham — 20/1 Ed Miliband — 20/1 Caroline Flint — 25/1 John Hutton — 25/1 Yvette Cooper — 25/1 And you can read our profile of Harman here.

Peter Hoskin

Has the ‘novice’ line worked?

For a few months now, Cameron and Osborne have led Brown and Darling in poll questions on economic competence.  Today’s ComRes poll for the Daily Politics ends that trend.  Answering the question “Putting your party allegiance aside, who do you trust most to steer Britain’s economy through the current downturn?”, 36 percent of respondents said the Labour pair, 30 percent the Tory pair. It’s the first substantive sign that Brown’s “I am the right man to steer us through these dark times” positioning at party conference – encapusulated by the “novice” dig at Cameron and Miliband – has hit home with voters.  And another reminder that the Tories need to

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Why Nigel Lawson was the most redistributive Chancellor of the Exchequer

When I was at the Fabian Society debate last Sunday with Ed Balls, the subject of taxing the rich came up. I warned them they were chasing a false God, that it will result in less tax yield. The rich will have less incentive to earn more, and more incentive to dodge tax. I gave a figure which one of those in the audience later accused me of making up. It’s pivotal to understanding how this country is financed, so here it is… The richest 1% of this country pay 23% of all income tax collected (table here) in 2008-09. The richest 5% pay 42% of the tax. These ratios

Thursday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Brown has a cunning plan…

Gordon Brown’s Baldrick-style Cunning Plan for global finance involves using the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as an “early-warning system”. Great idea.  When I was a business journalist, I remember the IMF early warnings – about how Brown’s switch to debt-fuelled profligacy post-2000 would end in tears. The key misjudgement made by both Brown and Greenspan was to try and get around the 2001 slowdown (which would have flushed out bad businesses and dodgy loans) by pumping the economy full of cheap debt. Pain delayed today means disaster tomorrow in financial markets. The IMF said in September 2001 that Brown’s spending spree was “regrettably pro-cyclical”. And since then? Here, via what

Peter Hoskin

Another Clegg plan backfires

If you recall, one of Nick Clegg’s recent Big Ideas was for the Lib Dems to cold call some 250,000 households and play a pre-recorded message to their occupants.  It didn’t seem like the cleverest move at the time – who would want to be pestered by an automated party political phone call in the evening? – but it seems downright stupid now that the ICO has ruled that the practice is in breach of privacy laws, and that the Lib Dems would face prosecution if they continued it. Sure, it’s hardly an earth-shattering ruling in itself.  But it fuels the the idea that Clegg is a calamity for his

Matthew Dancona

Voters won’t pay attention to Muddled Labour

The deepest cruelty of politics is its simplicity: pose with a banana and you are bang in trouble. The obverse truth is that a straightforward and positive image can work wonders: David Cameron’s tree- and huskie-hugging photo-ops in the initial months of his leadership were widely mocked, but they worked wonders in cementing the notion that Dave was both new and green. We do indeed live in the first-impressions world brilliantly described by Malcolm Gladwell in his book, Blink. It follows from this that complexity kills. When a Government begins to disaggregate, the problem is not only the intrinsic one of division (this lot are more concerned with fighting each

Peter Hoskin

A downturn milestone

The Irish economy has become the first in the EU to officially slide into recession.  Here in the UK, we’re most probably in the middle of one already, but we’ll have to wait a while longer yet for the official figures to confirm it.

Peter Hoskin

Will the Labour poll boost stick?

So, today’s YouGov poll for the Sun records a 7 point post-conference boost for Labour.  The Tories are now on 41 percent (down 3 from last month); Labour on 31 percent (up 7); and the Lib Dems on 16 percent (down 4).  And there’s some good news for Brown personally, too.  39 percent of respondents want him to stay in No.10 – up 10 from last month.   It’s not entirely unexpected.  Although I found it less than impressive, Brown’s speech did get generally good notices in the press.  And pundits are already picking up on ‘the Sarah Effect’.  The question now, though, is will the Labour gains stick?  There are

Wednesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Gordon’s Asset Management

Jackie Ashley argues that Gordon Brown deserves the extra time she thinks he bought with his speech yesterday, even though she concedes it won’t be nearly enough to save him in the long run. But I was also struck by this: His wife Sarah’s appearance was touching and starry: she is truly his greatest asset. Iron rule of politics: anytime hacks start referring to the leader’s spouse as his/her “greatest asset” it’s time for sentient folk to head for the lifeboats. cf,  Laura Bush. A good wife (or husband) is not enough. Sarah Brown’s appearance introducing the Prime Minister was a) obviously borrowed from American politica and, more importantly, b)

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Just Say No

There are very good reasons for wanting to be rid of this shower sooner rather than later: Identity cards could be handed out to children as young as 14, a home office minister has suggested. The first ID cards are due to be offered to 16 and 17-year-olds from 2010 as part of a plan to introduce the controversial scheme in stages. But Meg Hillier said the age range was still “up for grabs” and could be lowered “if they prove popular”. She also said the scheme might be too far advanced for the Tories to “unpick” if they came to power in 2010. Lord knows, the Tories will find

Alex Massie Alex Massie

David Cameron: Cad/Bounder/Rapist?

Classy stuff from Harriet Harman, deputy leader of the Labour Party, today. On David Cameron: There is something not quite right about him. He’s the kind of man your mother used to warn you about. You know the kind of man I’m talking about. He’ll promise you the world. Promise to make all your dreams come true. But if he got his wicked way with – you in the ballot box – you’d never hear from him again. Well, all’s fair and it’s a rough-and-tumble sport ain’t it? Still, you can take this as another sign of Labour’s desperation. [Via James Forsyth]

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Political Advertising 8

This Michael Dukakis ad from 1988 isn’t exactly subtle or elegant. But it has a certain resonance this week. Of course, that wasn’t enough for Dukakis…

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Brown isn’t paid to lie to us

A new Brownie was born today at 7am. Gordon Brown came on to BBC Breakfast this morning to tell presenter Sian Williams about how, as a family man himself, he sympathises with Ruth Kelly wanting to devote more time to her children. He didn’t expect to be grilled on his untrue claim that he has lowered the national debt. He repeated his Sky/Marr line: that debt had gone down from 44% to 37% of GDP. Williams told him this was untrue, and that the Office for National Statistics said so last week. She told him, rightly, that he arrived at his figure by subtracting Northern Rock – which he can’t

Peter Hoskin

Is another Darling U-turn on the cards?

Today’s Standard reports that Alistair Darling is set to back down over his plans to increase vehicle excise duty.  It’s hardly surprising.  The proposal was always likely to prompt a backbench rebellion as well as public outcry – two things that the Brown Government can ill afford, particularly at the moment. I imagine that No.s 10 and 11 will try and spin any concessions as a “recognition that British people need supporting in the current economic climate”.  But if the 10p tax fiasco taught us anything, it’s that voters rightly remember who to blame for the original proposal rather than who to “thank” for the U-turn.  Labour certainly shouldn’t expect a post-back down poll boost. And

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Ruth Kelly abandons ship

So Ruth Kelly’s last act as Transport Secretary was to deny Gordon Brown the privilege of sacking her. Word of the reshuffle leaked last night – Geoff Hoon out and to succeed Mandy as European Commissioner (not a straight switch, Mandy’s there till Jun09). Des Browne to stay in Defence but (finally) cede Scotland to Paul Murphy who combines it with Northern Ireland and Wales. Liam Byrne to the Cabinet. Unusually, some of the above had confirmation of these moves, so doubtless word reached Kelly that she’s offski. So when journalists started making inquiries, rather than saying “I serve at the pleasure” she said she was offski. I’ve always quite liked

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Welcome to the new austerity era, Mr Cameron

Fraser Nelson says that the Tory leader must not be tempted by a ‘safety first’ strategy at his conference in Birmingham. The global financial crisis has transformed the political context and left an opening for the Conservatives to promise true radicalism and to be proudly bold The Labour party conference already had an apocalyptic aura without the preachers from the Plymouth Brethren gathering in Manchester to rub it in. But as they stood at the security entrance, quoting blood-curdling passages from Ezekiel at passing Cabinet members, the text certainly took on a new resonance. The Labour membership knows that the end is nigh, and is just about ready to pass

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

This charming man: an audience with the Gover

There are two reliable tricks which can fill the room at any Tory speaking event: offer free beer, or put Michael Gove on the panel. His fusion of almost comic politeness and intellectual ruthlessness have given him quite a following, whether he’s defending neoconservatism or David Cameron. In three short years he has been propelled to the Tory front bench, tasked with devising a supply-side revolution in education which would be the flagship reform for the next Tory government. When we meet he is full of tales about Sweden, where he had just been to visit schools that use the system he hopes to bring to England. His spectacles, which

Tuesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Dick Cheney’s Mission to Destroy Europe

I don’t nornally write about Euroloonies, partly because I have trouble taking the European Parliament any more seriously than I do the Liberal Democrats. That is to say, it – and they – cross my mind no more than twice a year. But this, via the indomitable Trixy, is sufficiently priceless as to merit attention: Questions over the funding of the No campaign in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty referendum Raising a point of order, Co-President Daniel Cohn Bendit (Greens/EFA , Germany) said: “Last weekend, the Irish press revealed that there possibly exists a link between the financers of the no-campaign in Ireland and the Pentagon as well as the

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Brown’s Salvage Operation

So, Gordon Brown’s speech to the Labour party conferene wasn’t terrible. By which I mean that it clearly pleased his audience. And his “This is no time for a novice” line was an entertaining slap aimed at both David Cameron and David Miliband. But that carries danger too: Brown is trying to make the case that only he can be trusted to implement necessary reforms. He is betting that, come the election, voters will choose “experience” over “change”. Does that sound familiar? Well, it didn’t work for Hillary Clinton did it? And I’m not sure it’s going to work for John McCain either. Nor does Brown have the luxury of