Politics

With the Spending Review less than two hours away, I thought CoffeeHousers might like to be armed with a few graphs that set the scene. What follows is by no means the complete picture of the fiscal landscape, but these are certainly some of most prominent landmarks. First up, real terms spending (aka Total Managed Expenditure) from 1966 to 2015: So, yes, all the fuss is about that small dip at the end of the blue line – a dip, as it happens, of about four percent. But don’t think that the fuss is entirely unwarranted. What the government is trying to do here is curb a trend of ever-increasing

At the Comprehensive Spending Review tomorrow, we will get a much clearer picture of how the Government plans to manage spending cuts.  There are a few things we already know, though: 1) The overall cuts will be modest.  As Fraser has pointed out, the overall cut in spending is small.  Spending is going down to around the level it was at in 2006-07.  It will remain several percentage points of GDP above the level at the start of the last decade. 2) Cut in some areas will be much sharper.  The higher bill for Government debt interest, the ringfencing of Health and International Development and the relatively soft deal for

Split-stories have their own momentum. As soon as you know that a certain secretary of state is in the dog house with Downing Street, you start seeing things through that prism. So when I saw that the press release on the government’s new national security strategy contained quotes from the PM, the Foreign Secretary, the Home Secretary and the Development Secretary, but not the Defence Secretary, I immediately regarded it – and perhaps wrongly – as part of the Westminster Fox hunt.   Liam Fox’s appearance on the Politics Show on Sunday was ill-advised. By celebrating his defiance of the Treasury’s demands and trumpeting the PM’s support for him, he

The less we hear from Theresa May, the more I worry about the Home Office budget. I’m hearing rumours of her taking a 30 percent cut, which I first dismissed as a piece of expectations management. But now I’m beginning to wonder. We know that defence is settled – about an 8 percent real-terms cut. The NHS, which absorbs a quarter of government spending, will have real-terms increases (something even the left-leaning IPPR doesn’t back). The schools budget has escaped relatively unscathed, we read. So what’s left? Again, there’s so much deliberate misinformation out there that I hesitate to give a rumour round-up. But here goes.   One major victim

The Ministry of Defence’s -7.5 percent budget settlement is a better deal than it appeared the MoD would get back in the summer. Tim Montgomerie hails it as a triumph for Fox and his full-on campaign against the deeper cuts that the Treasury wanted. But No 10 is keen for it not to been seen like this. They don’t want ministers to think next time round that the way to get a good deal is to kick up a fuss and enlist the papers on your behalf. There is so much anger with Fox in Downing Street, even those who are usually sympatheticto him are exasperated with him at the moment, that