Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Monday

Douglas Murray

Is Britain losing the war against radical Islam?

Some stories are almost too predictable. Take this one. Three schoolgirls from Britain disappear to Syria, apparently in order to join Islamic State and become ‘jihad brides’, or more precisely ‘jihad rape prizes’. There is a huge public outcry. In particular the families of the girls – and others in the Muslim communities – ask why the police did not know that these girls were planning to go to Syria. Before long Keith Vaz – never one to miss the lowest form of bandwagon – hauls police chiefs in front of his Parliamentary committee. There the police chiefs are made to apologise for not knowing the movements of the three

Sunday

Sebastian Payne

Alex Salmond invades the stage and appeals to the cultish side of the SNP

Alex Salmond has been oddly absent from the SNP’s spring conference this weekend. Although the former First Minister’s only official positions are as the MSP for Aberdeenshire East and the PPC for Gordon, it’s puzzling why one of the party’s most prominent figures wasn’t given a prime speaking slot. But that didn’t stop him from trying to steal the show. A small stage was setup in the hall for a Q&A session to promote his new book at lunchtime today. But as soon as Salmond arrived, a combination of sound issues and the ecstatic crowd led him to give up on the side stage and invade the main platform. As

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Lucy Powell confirms: debt-addicted Labour has no plan to balance the books

‘You aren’t listening to what I’m saying,’ said a rather rattled Lucy Powell, Labour’s election chief, whom the party put up for BBC Sunday Politics today. I suspect that, by now, she’ll have wished that we weren’t listening. Because in a commendable moment of candour, she admitted that the Labour Party intends to keep debt rising should it win power – and has no real deficit reduction strategy. Ms Powell dispensed with Ed Balls tricksy language and told it how it is. Here she is, talking to BBC Sunday Politics (11 mins in, after complaining about a ‘Paxo-style interview’). ‘Andrew Neil: You would borrow more, wouldn’t you? Andrew Neil: To bridge the deficit

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Stakes raised ahead of Thursday night’s debate

The stakes have been raised, at least psychologically, for Thursday night’s debate. Today’s YouGov poll has Labour four points ahead, in contrast to a two point Tory lead in their last survey. This is being seen in Westminster as a Paxman bounce for Miliband. If this Labour leads is still in place at the end of the Easter weekend, Tory nerves will begin to fray. Thursday’s debate will be a crowded affair with seven leaders on stage. Despite it being a two hour debate, there’ll only be time for four questions. As I say in the Mail On Sunday, the debate will almost certainly turn into Cameron versus the rest as they

Saturday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

YouGov/Sunday Times poll puts Labour 4 points ahead. Be afraid.

Just two weeks ago, senior Conservatives were saying that ‘crossover’ had been reached: that the Tories were ahead in the polls and that the lead would slowly build. Last week, the lead evaporated. Tomorrow, a YouGov/Sunday Times poll puts Labour four points ahead. Cameron’s bizarre pre-resignation on Monday and a rather lacklustre performance in what passed for the television debate on Thursday seems to have had an effect. Sure, they were watched by only 3 million people vs. 10 million for the 2010 debates – but the word gets out. Jeremy Paxman performed very well, Ed Miliband quite well, Cameron less well. And yes, that’s the Cameron already talking about his retirement, as if

Sebastian Payne

Nicola Sturgeon’s speech in Glasgow highlights the similarities between the SNP and Ukip

Is Nicola Sturgeon trying to channel Nigel Farage? Scotland’s First Minister regaled the 3,000-strong crowd at the SNP’s spring conference today with some nuggets of policy, more demands for Ed Miliband and even a swipe at Margaret Thatcher. But she also positioned herself as part of a UK-wide movement seeking to ‘shake up’ Westminster in the name of ‘ordinary people’. You might add: the Ukip of the north. SNP folk loathe being compared to Ukip. In fact, when I was writing this piece in a bar at the conference centre, I was berated by a group of Nats who spotted the headline and took me to task. But let’s face

James Forsyth James Forsyth

David Cameron: ‘This is a high stakes, high risk election’

The Tories want to frame this election as a straight choice between David Cameron and Ed Miliband. So, today Cameron delivered some of his most direct attacks on Miliband yet. Anticipating criticism, he said, ‘Some might say “don’t make this personal” but when it comes to who’s Prime Minister, the personal is national.’ Cameron warned that Labour could reverse everything that has been achieved in this parliament, the ‘painstaking work of the last 5 years – they could undo in just 5 months.’ He attacked Labour as ‘the welfare party’ and derided Miliband as a ‘Hampstead Socialist’. In contrast, he tried to paint the Tories as the party which is

Friday

John O'Neill

Even the academics don’t have a clue who will win this election

Academics gathered in London today to discuss how they predict the outcome of the most unpredictable election in living memory (© everyone), and they gave their current forecasts. They vary quite a bit with the predictions for the number of seats the Tories will get between 233 and 296 and for Labour from 261 seats to 312. Like the Political Studies Association’s survey of several hundred academics, pollsters and journalists which was released last month, when you take the average of the predictions (to exploit the ‘wisdom of crowds’ and hopefully end up with a more accurate forecast), Labour is ahead but there’s barely room for a cigarette paper between them

Alex Krasodomski

Keep trolling the politicians, Twitter

A politician’s life on Twitter is rarely uneventful. I have written in defence of all the goodwill and positive communication this election has seen on social media. But slip-ups are costly. As the election gets closer and the debates, broadcasts and gaffes begin, Twitter is watching. My research group CASM looked at how the #BattleForNumber10 went down on Twitter yesterday evening, running an analysis with Qlik during the debates to track the ‘boos’ and the ‘cheers’ being sent during the hour. The results gave it to Ed, but the most striking aspect of the chart was the hammering Cameron took as he was mauled by Paxman (who himself was roundly

Melanie McDonagh Melanie McDonagh

If British democracy worked, we would have had a referendum on the death penalty

Nice to know, isn’t it, that public attitudes are finally catching up with MPs’? It seems, from the Social Attitudes survey, that finally, half a century after parliament suspended the death penalty, 48 per cent of people no longer want the death penalty reintroduced. Opinion has been stubbornly in favour of it ever since 1965, and that was also true in 1998 when the Human Rights Act forbade capital punishment outright. In other words, until now, MPs have been wildly at odds with the opinion of most voters on an undeniably important issue. I’m unsure exactly where I stand on the issue myself, though I’ve always felt the guillotine would

Steerpike Steerpike

Rupert Murdoch calls Ed Miliband out on his debate boast

Ed Miliband used last night’s election interview with Jeremy Paxman as an opportunity to blast the Murdoch press. The Labour leader told viewers that he had stood up to Rupert Murdoch, and would continue to do so in spite of whatever bad publicity is thrown at him as a result. However, this appeared to come as news to Murdoch. The media mogul took to Twitter in a bid to set the record straight, claiming that the Labour leader only had gushing praise for him when they met the one time. Thanks for 2 mentions, Ed Miliband. Only met once for all of 2 minutes when you embarrassed me with over the top flattery. —

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Everything Yes voters believe about the Scottish independence referendum is wrong (but that doesn’t matter)

Say this for Alex Salmond: he is entirely typical of the movement he once led. The former First Minister’s new book makes much of what you might deem the referendum’s dirk-in-the-back theory. It was The Vow what won it; the last-minute, hastily-prepared, promise of more powers for the Scottish parliament. Without that, Yes would have carried the day. And it if wasn’t the bleedin’ Vow it was the revolting, Unionist, press. If they had not hoodwinked the Scottish people everything would have been different. Conveniently, this allows Yes voters to avoid asking why they lost a referendum they might have won. A referendum, in fact, that until the votes were counted they were convinced

Sebastian Payne

Miliband’s performance last night vindicates the Tories’ strategy of no head-to-head debates

David Cameron and Ed Miliband both ‘won’ last night’s TV Q&A session. The Prime Minister put in a decent performance and came out ahead in the snap poll. But Miliband exceeded expectations, albeit ones which were pretty low. It was a given that Cameron would be fluent and deal ably with the casual conversations in the audience Q&A. But some expected a faux pas from Miliband and it never came. Miliband did not put in a game changing performance, and we haven’t seen yet how large last night’s audience was by the time Miliband came on at quarter to ten. But it has given Labour some momentum ahead of its campaign launch today in East London. On

Thursday

The Spectator

Spectator letters: who kept us out of the euro, and how to deal with squirrels

The referendum parties Sir: Zac Goldsmith and Sir John Major are each of them both right and wrong on the EU referendum (‘My dad saved Britain’, 28 February; Letters, 21 March). I was an MP interested in Europe, and then a PPS and minister on EU issues in the Foreign Office from 1997 to 2005, and it was pretty clear to all of us that Sir John’s decision to call a referendum on euro entry was motivated by his need to appease the rising Eurosceptic fronde in his party. He may sincerely believe that the creation of the Referendum party by Sir James Goldsmith had nothing to do with the decision. But

Peter Jones

When Rome’s 99 per cent stood up

In the UK the richest 1 per cent — 300,000 — of the working population control 23 per cent of the nation’s total wealth. Austerity and cuts loom. Oxfam says there are 13 million ‘relatively’ poor in the country. But the poor seem rather relaxed about it. The ancients, however, knew the poor could not be ignored. In the Athenian radical democracy, the poor were in fact the bosses, having total control of Athens’ courts and sovereign assembly. They could have voted themselves pensions for life had they so wished, or stripped the rich of everything they owned. They did not. Instead the rich were taxed in times of war and made

The Spectator

How to fix our defence budget mess

With the exception of 1983, when Michael Foot promised unilateral nuclear disarmament, defence has played little role in modern election campaigns. This is not least because the two main parties appear to have developed a non-aggression pact. They have agreed to heap praise upon the armed forces and commit them to ever more frequent foreign campaigns — while simultaneously nibbling away at the defence budget to fund programmes which offer more instant gratification to the electorate. This week, as the news emerged of Russia’s plan to lease 12 long-range bombers to Argentina, the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, announced the results of the latest review into how we protect the Falkland

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Despite Cameron’s win, Labour will be happy with Ed Miliband’s Q&A performance

David Cameron won tonight’s TV head to head with Ed Miliband according to an instant ICM poll. The poll for the Guardian gives the evening to Cameron 54-46. Though, it is worth noting that this 8 point margin is smaller than Cameron’s usual lead on the leadership question. Cameron started with a grilling from Jeremy Paxman, who pinned the Tory leader to the crease with a series of fast, hostile deliveries. Cameron just about kept the ball out. But he was visibly uncomfortable at points. However, there was no killer moment. Cameron was more comfortable with the questions from the audience and with them he repeatedly pivoted to the Tories’

Robert Smith

Gordon Brown laments the ‘constitutional revolution’ of his own making

Given that Gordon Brown has hardly been seen in the Commons since losing power five years ago, it was a bit rich of him to say goodbye now. But the SNP uprising has started — it looks set to claim his own seat of Kirkcaldy — and so he’s off. In his final speech to the House of Commons today, he lamented the gradual breaking apart of the UK which was, of course, started by his own party. After indulging in niceties towards Parliament as an institution, the Speaker and his constituents, Brown promised to devote his efforts away from Westminster to ‘the idea of Britain’ and attacked the Conservatives’ plans to

Sebastian Payne

Is the era of stable government over?

Everyone agrees: the outcome of this election is impossible to predict. But are we witnessing the end of the stable, two-party system of government we’ve become used to? On Monday, the Spectator posed this question to a panel of political experts for their thoughts on whether this election will mark the beginning of a series of coalitions. James Forsyth, the Spectator’s political editor pointed out that ‘you don’t need a single party government for stable government’. He thinks that after polling day, the next government is unlikely to be similar to the current arrangement. Based on the current polling numbers, Forsyth said the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives would be 20 short of a majority

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Revealed: David Cameron’s secret conversations about the next coalition

David Cameron is keen to demonstrate his willingness to give straight answers to straight questions at the moment. But there is a limit to his candour. Anyone who asks him about whether he’s preparing for another hung parliament will be told that he’s not thinking about, that he’s going all out for a majority. However, the Spectator knows of two conversations that David Cameron has had about what he would do in a hung parliament in recent weeks. In both of these, his message was the same: he would rather do another coalition than attempt to run a minority government. For this reason, Cameron won’t—as Boris Johnson suggested he should