The recent spat between Kyiv and Warsaw over grain – with Ukraine suing Poland at the WTO – has come at bad time. In normal times, a trade dispute (however meaningful for those directly affected) would barely register. At a time of mortal danger, however, rifts between allies are grounds for profound concern.
For Poland’s right-leaning Law and Justice Party (PiS), banning the sale of Ukrainian grain is an electoral matter. With a mid-October parliamentary election it may well lose, the populist PiS wants to appease Poland’s rural constituencies (the party’s base) by being seen to be protecting farmers from a deluge of foreign grain. Responding to Ukrainian criticism in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Polish President Andrzej Duda likened Ukraine to a drowning man: he had to be helped but not at the cost of taking the helper down with him.
Poland has stood by Ukraine steadfastly since the Russian invasion, providing weapons and ammunition. It has signaled its continued commitment, but keen observers can certainly sense of whiff of irritation in Warsaw bordering on despondency. We have done so much for these people, and this is how they repay our kindness – by suing us in the WTO? Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has indicated that Warsaw may stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and instead focus on building up its own defence capabilities. As Kyiv faces the prospect of a drawn-out war of attrition, these signals from a key ally are deeply disturbing.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has found himself in a serious bind. On the one hand, Ukraine’s narrative of victimhood has helped him win hearts and minds in the West. Our perception of Ukraine as a victim of unprovoked Russian aggression has helped Zelensky drum up political, economic and, most importantly, military support for his struggling country. The horror of death and destruction, the suffering of the innocent, the plight of refugees have all aroused our moral indignation and left us inclined towards charity. But as is often the case with charity, there is an unspoken assumption that the other side must show gratitude in response. Suing one of your allies in the WTO is not consistent with this image.
On the other hand, Zelensky has tried to sell the West a different narrative. In this competing narrative, Ukraine is not so much a struggling supplicant as a stout saviour – of Europe, of the West, of the entire world – from the Russian evil. Ukraine has been paying with blood for our freedom. It is therefore the West that must be grateful to Ukraine, not the other way around. In this reading, helping Ukraine is not an act of charity but an obligation. The West must not just pay up but do so promptly, and with appropriate humility and gratitude for Ukraine’s bravery and sacrifice.
This narrative helps Zelensky at home. It is better for Ukrainian morale if the country feels it can stand tall and proud than if it is seen as a poor relative, barely scraping by on foreign donations. But there is an inherent danger in standing too tall and too proud. This becomes a source of annoyance for allies who may well be genuinely committed to Ukraine’s cause but resent being lectured by Kyiv.
In the meantime, the Russians will no doubt take note of such quarrelling. Vladimir Putin’s long-term game in Ukraine is to outlast the West. He will take signs of momentary tensions between Ukraine and its western backers as clear-cut evidence that he has been right all along; that the West is wavering, and that it does not have enough resilience and patience to carry on with the fight. Putin will be overjoyed at the sight of disagreements between Brussels (which had lifted the ban on Ukrainian grain) and Warsaw (which blatantly ignored the EU). The longer the war continues, he thinks, the greater the frictions, the more obvious the fatigue.
The challenge for Ukraine and western policymakers is to prove that Putin is mistaken in his calculations. This will require infinite tact, lots of patience, and an understanding that the question is not who owes more to whom, but what we can do together to push back against Russia’s aggression. And that in turn means reducing unnecessary posturing and toning down harmful rhetoric.
President Duda spoke of a drowning man in need of help. A better metaphor for Ukraine and Poland is that they find themselves in the same boat. It is about time they learn how to row in unison.
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