It’s polling day across the United Kingdom. Elections are being held for all London borough councils and every local authority in Wales and Scotland. Most seats in England were last up for election in 2018 and in Scotland and Wales in 2017. Elsewhere in Northern Ireland, there are assembly elections, with Sinn Féin poised to become the largest party at Stormont. This year’s contests may lack the prestige of last year’s mayoral races but they will nevertheless serve as a useful indicator of the public’s mood towards Boris Johnson’s government.
Questions about Covid parties and the cost of living have dominated the campaigns in England. Both Labour and the Lib Dems are hoping to make impressive gains in the south, amid accusations by the Conservative chair Oliver Dowden of an unofficial anti-Tory pact. His party is expected to lose more than 500 seats, with a few gains in Red Wall seats being the only possible bright spot. In Scotland meanwhile Anas Sarwar hopes to mount a revival in Labour’s fortunes and overtake the Conservatives as the second party north of the border.
The SNP, once again, look set to top the polls – 15 years after they became the largest party at Holyrood. In Wales the incumbent Labour regime is expected to gain around four of the country’s 22 councils from ‘no overall control.’ Both the Welsh Conservatives and the nationalists Plaid Cymru are bracing themselves for losses there. Below is your guide to seven key battlegrounds which will define election night 2022.
Southampton
This is a key swing council which often flips between the two main parties. Previously run by Labour for nine consecutive years, the Tories took control here a year ago by a razor-thin margin. It has become a key battleground, with 25 seats held by the Conservatives, 22 Labour seats and a vacant seat. YouGov projects the Tories should just cling on. Results are expected at 5:00 a.m on Friday.
Wandsworth
The key word on every Tory activist’s lips in London is: Wandsworth. This flagship Conservative authority has been true blue since 1978 and was led for nearly 20 years by Eddie Lister, Boris Johnson’s former chief of staff. But now Margaret Thatcher’s ‘favourite council’ is poised to go red – despite Wandsworth being the only London borough to cut council tax this year. Simon Hogg, the Labour group leader, says ‘it’s toss-of-coin stuff’; privately Tory activists admit they’d have been sunk without favourable boundary changes. Famously the Conservative party chairman Kenneth Baker used the case of Wandsworth in May 1990 to justify the poll tax and the Thatcher government’s choices. If his party loses here today, how will his successor Oliver Dowden explain that one away? Results are expected here at 5:30 a.m on Friday.
Barnet
Tory-controlled Barnet is widely tipped as Labour’s top target in the capital this year. It was where Sir Keir Starmer launched Labour’s nationwide local election campaign last month – a suggested indicator of confidence in the result. His party has never won Barnet outright before, with voters returning the Tories to office here since 2002. Barnet is the centre of Britain’s Jewish community, with the Conservatives actually making gains here in 2018, against a London-wide swing, owing in large part to Labour’s disastrous handling of antisemitism cases. Development is also a major local concern here, as it is in many outer London boroughs. Barnet is expected to declare its results at around 7:00 a.m on Friday.
Burnley
This Lancashire council offers a useful litmus test of whether Boris Johnson’s appeal still endures in the Red Wall. The Tories made gains there last year and the councillors now up for re-election last faced the public in 2018 – before the general election which saw Burnley return its first Conservative MP in more than a century. Labour will hope Boris Johnson’s star power has faded, possibly giving them a chance to regain their majority on the council. Its results are expected at 2:30 p.m on Friday.
Somerset
The race here is between the incumbent Conservatives and the resurgent Liberal Democrats. The latter hopes to make gains in its former stronghold of South West England and offer a strong challenge to the Tories in rural areas ahead of the Tiverton and Honiton by-election, triggered by Neil Parish’s recent departure. A second by-election in the county could be in the offing too if the Somerton and Frome MP David Warburton resigns, following a recent scandal. Somerset’s results are expected at 4:00 p.m on Friday.
Glasgow
The results from Scotland’s largest council will be closely watched even though the country’s proportional electoral system means large shifts in the number of councils held by each party are relatively unlikely. Glasgow’s incumbent SNP regime has had plenty of difficulties in recent years, with fears about the current state of the city’s finances. Labour wants to overtake the Tories as the largest unionist party in the country, and overtaking the SNP in Scotland’s biggest city would help that goal. It is expected to declare at 4:00 p.m on Friday.
Wakefield
Another Red Wall council race which will be closely watched due to the looming Commons by-election in the seat this summer, following the resignation of convicted sex offender Tory MP Imran Ahmad Khan. Sir Keir Starmer visited the area yesterday, vowing to win back voters who have ‘lost faith.’ The council results should give an indicator of whether the Conservatives have a chance of holding on to the parliamentary seat and will give pause for thought for jumpy 2019ers fearing their future prospects. Wakefield’s results are expected at 5:00 p.m on Friday.
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