Your Autumn Statement check-list

I very much doubt today’s Pre-Budget Report will be memorable; a shame, given the circumstances. The supplementary Office for Budget Responsibility document will be more interesting — and relevant to people’s lives — than the Budget itself. Sure, everyone focuses their attention on the Red Book (or Green Book, as it is for the PBR) and GDP projections. But even GDP isn’t really useful. You can manipulate GDP by printing money, or by borrowing money. Gets you nowhere. GDP is only useful insofar as it’s a proxy for national prosperity. And thanks to the OBR we’ll have other, more useful metrics today. Here’s my guide to them:
 
1. Net debt: up or down? How much will national debt rise by? It’s due to hit £1.36 trillion in 2014/15 — what will that figure be after today? Osborne should tell us in the Budget statement. If it doesn’t rise, then Osborne will have done well.