Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

YouGov/Sunday Times poll puts Labour 4 points ahead. Be afraid.

Just two weeks ago, senior Conservatives were saying that ‘crossover’ had been reached: that the Tories were ahead in the polls and that the lead would slowly build. Last week, the lead evaporated. Tomorrow, a YouGov/Sunday Times poll puts Labour four points ahead. Cameron’s bizarre pre-resignation on Monday and a rather lacklustre performance in what passed for the television debate on Thursday seems to have had an effect.

Sure, they were watched by only 3 million people vs. 10 million for the 2010 debates – but the word gets out. Jeremy Paxman performed very well, Ed Miliband quite well, Cameron less well. And yes, that’s the Cameron already talking about his retirement, as if he has already mentally checked out. The YouGov poll says Miliband performed better in those debates, by a 15-point lead (34/49) far wider than any of the immediate post-debate polls.

People in my line of work can sometimes talk as if a natural force of political gravity will pull Cameron over the line; that logic somehow dictates it.

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