YouGov poll suggests Tories could fall 16 seats short of overall majority

There’s a nasty shock for the Tories in the Times this morning, with the paper publishing a YouGov poll suggesting the party could lose 20 seats at next week’s election. The estimate says that we could be heading for a hung parliament and that the Conservatives might fall 16 seats short of an overall majority. Even more remarkably, YouGov’s numbers indicate Labour could up their tally of seats by almost 30.

It’s difficult to overestimate just what a disaster such an outcome would be for Theresa May. The Prime Minister made the decision to call this election herself with only the guidance of her tightly-knit Downing Street team; if she fails next Thursday, May would have no one else to blame but herself. When the PM made the snap announcement, she said that the political ‘game playing’ would continue unless the Government could boost its majority. May also said that ‘the only way to guarantee certainty and stability for the years ahead is to hold this election and seek your support for the decisions I must take’.