Would Russia change if Putin died tomorrow?

Suppose Vladimir Putin drops dead tomorrow – he has to drop dead one day, after all. Will a chastened Russian elite and public decide to abandon dreams of empire and vow never again to fall for the lure of the autocratic strongman?

Putin will leave a sick country that ought to be yearning for change. The myth that Russia is a military superpower, which did so much to intimidate its neighbours, lies broken amid the burned-out ammunition dumps. Putin’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine provoked Finland and Sweden to join Nato. His aggression has reinvigorated the West and pushed it into supplying Ukraine with advanced weaponry. Russia is poorer, weaker and looking to a future as a Chinese client state condemned to pay homage to the Middle Kingdom as it once paid homage to the Mongol empire.

Unverified Russian sources claim that Vladimir Putin himself is sick: suffering from either cancer or Parkinson’s disease.