Would another cut to National Insurance be enough to move the polls?

We’ll know tomorrow afternoon what exactly Jeremy Hunt has included in his Budget, but reports this evening suggest we’re looking at another 2p cut to employee National Insurance: a move that is estimated to put £450 back in the pocket of the average worker, which Hunt will try to sell as a £900 tax cut, if you combine it with the additional 2p taken off NI in his Autumn Statement last year. 

The decision to opt for NI will be driven by fiscal restraints rather than political desire. Tory MPs, and workers, have been expecting something bigger than what was already delivered last autumn, and an income tax would have fit the bill. Furthermore, Rishi Sunak made clear when he ran for the leadership back in summer 2022 that he wanted to focus on income tax cuts, pleading to reduce the basic rate from 20p to 16p over the next parliament.