With many Tories likely to vote Lib Dem, a hung parliament seems a real possibility

Since it is probably as well that those of us who earn a living by political punditry should occasionally have a spasm of humility, let me share one of my own with you. I know in my heart that Labour is likely to win the next election, but I cannot for the life of me understand how. In the old days, when a Labour government made an imperial mess of things, there was a bright, shiny new Conservative opposition waiting to take over. If, in the 1960s or 1970s, we had a Labour government that had presided over a precipitous decline in standards in the public service while hiking up taxation, raiding pension funds and systematically lying to the British people, they would have been out like a shot. Yes, I know, the Conservative party is doing its irresistible impression of the proverbial one-legged man in an arse-kicking contest, but its utter inability to do its job does not provide the answer to one fundamental question: who the hell is going to vote Labour?

In 1997, as is well known, Labour won not least because millions of middle-class people voted for them.