Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

With an 18-point lead in the latest poll, momentum is with the EU ‘in’ campaign. 

Why is David Cameron having such trouble persuading Jean-Claude Juncker to give in to his minimal demands for EU reform? The Prime Minister pledged, in a Tory manifesto, to restrict welfare for migrants for the first four years they’re in Britain: not as an ‘emergency’, but as a matter of routine. He was returned with a majority, and under British democracy this means it ought to happen. If the Lords were to try to frustrate this, the PM would overrule them because it was a manifesto pledge, voted on by the public. Why accept a veto from the EU?

But the polls show a clear lead for ‘in’ – a ComRes poll for the Daily Mail tomorrow shows in leading by 18 points (54pc to 36pc) with just 10pc as ‘don’t knows’. The gap has narrowed since ComRes asked the same question last month – unusual for a referendum campaign, where the status quo normally expands its lead.

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