A Cameron government has the potential to change Britain – but not much else beside. A Tory loss, however, could change much more.
The Cameron Tories are a bellwether for Conservative movements in a number of countries, including the US. If they succeed, they will prove a powerful model for many moderate Republicans who believe their party is in an earlier post-Major phase – angry, divided and negative.
If David Cameron fails to defeat Gordon Brown, few Republicans will look across to their British cousins for inspiration. The party will eschew any modernising project for a while longer and stick to their equivalent of IDS.
In this scenario, the Republicans will pick up some congressional seats and governorships. But they will lose the next race for the White House and struggle to take a majority in the House of Representatives.
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