Will Ukraine become Putin’s Afghanistan?

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace may be right that Russian troops have not succeeded in all their immediate objectives, that they are demoralised and have been incompetent, and have suffered heavy losses. But the idea Putin is failing miserably – as Wallace claims – won’t be compelling to those who spent the night in Kiev’s metro stations to shelter from Russian missiles. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government colleagues, who warn that the first priority of Russia’s special forces is their removal from the face of the planet, are also unlikely to be persuaded.

For all Western leaders’ words about imposing the ‘mother of all sanctions’ and not allowing the bully Putin to prosper, Ukrainians can only see Putin’s overwhelming military capability. They struggle with the idea of the US, EU, UK and the rest as their immediate salvation.

The sanctions announced so far will take months and years to cause real pain to Russia, so there is little the West has done or is doing that reduces the very high probability that within days Putin will look as though he has taken control of the levers of the Ukrainian state.