Will there be more defections to Ukip?

Now that Ukip has bagged a seat that the Tories thought they could win, other would-be defectors may well be having a good long think about their chances. The fact that Mark Reckless only won Rochester with a 2,920 majority over the Conservatives may well lead wavering MPs to conclude that it isn’t safe to go over as their seats will be vulnerable once again in 2015. But then again they might conclude that all bets are off anyway, given Reckless wasn’t even supposed to win this seat.

Michael Gove yesterday claimed he was 100% certain that there would be no more defections from his party to Nigel Farage’s tribe. But he would say that, wouldn’t he, even if it risks making him look a bit of a chump when someone does defect. One of the reasons he did say it was that Gove has spoken to every potential defector and can therefore produce evidence that they lied to him by saying they would not leave the Tories.