Will there be an election upset on Thursday?

In just two days, voters will head to the polling booth to cast their vote in the 2024 general election. Will there be any surprises in store? So far, there has been little movement when it comes to the gap in vote share between Labour and the Tories. While Labour’s has fallen during the campaign, the Tories have failed to benefit too much from it thanks to the Reform party – which is eating into their vote share.

A poll by Savanta for today’s Telegraph finds that the Tory campaign has steadied things since their mid-campaign D-Day gaffe: the party is now at its highest level since the debacle with 24 points. Meanwhile Nigel Farage’s Reform party appears to have dropped a few points since its June high, following a series of rows over Farage’s comments on Russia and the past comments of Reform candidates.

Yet the big picture remains as it did when the campaign started: Keir Starmer looks set for a sizeable majority and Rishi Sunak for a historic defeat.