Will there be a late surge to the Tories?

So, here we are. In 100 hours time, we’ll be half-way through election-day. But at the moment, the polls still remain deadlocked.

Yet, there remains a sense that there’ll be some kind of late shift towards the Tories. Is there any grounds for this? Well, I argue in the Mail on Sunday that there are a few things that point towards this.

David Cameron has finally hit his stride. His performances have improved markedly and the public appear to have concluded that he clearly won last Thursday’s Question Time, YouGov have the public giving it to him 42% to Miliband’s 26%. As Tim Shipman points out, Cameron’s lead as preferred Prime Minister has risen from 7% two weeks ago to 14% today.

Ed Miliband had one on his weakest outings of the campaign on Thursday night. On top of this a Labour campaign that up to now has been surefooted has made some bizarre calls in recent days, the Russell Brand interview and today’s announcement that there’ll erect a stone monument to their manifesto commitments in Downing Street if they win being two of them.