Will the UK’s economy shrink next year?

The OECD has marked Britain down as the only G7 country (and the only major country bar Russia) expected to suffer a shrinking economy next year. But how accurate are its predictions? A year ago, it predicted that inflation in the UK would peak at 4.9 per cent in the first half of this year before falling back to 2 per cent by the end of next year. The economy was going to grow by 4.7 per cent this year followed by a further 2.1 per cent in 2023. The government would bite off any hand that offered that now.

It can be excused for failing to predict the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But this is hardly the first time economic forecasting by the OECD and everyone else has proved somewhat wide of the mark. For what it’s worth, here are its forecasts for the UK next year, published this morning: the economy will shrink by 0.4