The overall result of the general election isn’t really in doubt: the Tories will be returned to government tomorrow with an increased majority. But just how big that majority is will have a huge impact on what happens at Westminster over the next few years—and that is much less clear.
There are two reasons for this. First, the British polling industry remains in crisis; meaning that it is hard to have confidence in the numbers they are pumping out today. Second, in this election, there isn’t going to be a national swing, but a series of regional swings. For example, I hear that the Tories are sending extra resources into Battersea, a seat where they have an almost 8,000 majority. Yet, at the same time, the Tories are expanding their reach in the north east into seats where the Labour majority is more than 8,000.
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