Will the Tories become radicalised over the ECHR?

I’m writing this shortly after hosting Professor Tim Bale and David Gauke at the Social Market Foundation for a talk about Tim’s excellent book about the radicalisation of the Conservative party in recent years.  

That discussion raised a very good question: is leaving the European Convention on Human Rights the next Brexit? 

The immediate origins of this question lie in the small boats issue.  My view is that the Sunak government will fail to satisfy those voters who are unhappy about Channel crossings.  Stark-sounding political threats of deportation and the like won’t deter people desperate enough to travel across a continent in a metal box, then board a raft to cross 20-odd miles of choppy sea.  Absent a deal that gives the French real incentives to stop migrants reaching the Channel, the boats will continue to arrive. And voter perceptions of a government unable to control England’s maritime border will persist, fuelled both by Nigel Farage and the political narratives the Sunak administration has validated.