Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation has left Labour feeling hopeful. Might this be their chance to make significant gains north of the border at the next general election?
Even before the First Minister’s unexpected announcement, the Scottish Labour party was already running at 29 per cent in polls of Westminster vote intentions, 10 points up on its tally in 2019. Instead of being in third place (and 26 points behind the SNP), it now occupied second place – ahead of the Conservatives and only 14 points behind the SNP.
True, at that level of support the party might still gain no more than half a dozen seats at the expense of the SNP. However, any further significant narrowing of the nationalists’ lead would start to reap a richer reward. A narrowing of the gap to just six points could deliver Labour as many as 16 new Westminster seats.
It remains far from guaranteed that Labour will be able to make significant inroads into SNP support
And if Labour were to gain a substantial number of Scottish seats, the lead over the Conservatives they would need to win an overall majority at Westminster would be much reduced. In short, there is potentially much at stake for Sir Keir Starmer.
The leadership contest certainly exposes the SNP to some obvious risks. Sturgeon is still Scotland’s most popular leader, not least thanks to her formidable communication skills. It is far from obvious that her successor (at present, most likely Kate Forbes or Humza Yousaf) will have the same personal presence, or persuasive power. As the first bruising week has underlined, there is a distinct risk that, following the controversy over gender recognition, the contest will exacerbate divisions within the party over social issues, while failing to generate agreement on how the party can best advance the cause of independence.
Meanwhile, Labour is unique in being the one pro-Union party that has some success in securing the support of Yes voters. On average in the last half dozen polls, as many as 16 per cent of those who voted Yes in the 2014 Independence Referendum say they would vote for the Labour party, a figure the party is hoping to increase with promises of more devolution. In contrast, just four per cent of these pro-independence voters currently support the Conservatives, and only two per cent the Liberal Democrats.
So far, so good for Sir Keir Starmer and his party. It is important, however, to avoid jumping to conclusions. It remains far from guaranteed that Labour will be able to make significant inroads into SNP support.
For a start, the progress the Labour party has made so far north of the border has had a heavy unionist skew to it. Scottish Labour began to advance in the polls towards the end of 2021, at the same time as UK Labour was moving ahead in the UK-wide polls in the wake of ‘partygate’. Since then, the party’s support among 2014 No voters has grown from 28 per cent to 42 per cent – an increase of 14 points. The support from pro-independence Yes voters has increased, over the same period by just seven points. Meanwhile those polls that tally people’s voting intentions by their current attitude towards independence rather than how they voted in 2014 suggest that Labour is even more reliant on unionist support than these figures imply.
Equally, Scottish Labour has had more success in winning over those who voted Conservative in 2019 (nearly one in five of whom have made the switch) than it has at securing the support of those who voted SNP (one in eight). Moreover, Labour has lost around one in ten of its own 2019 voters to the SNP, but hardly lost anyone to the Conservatives.
Still, Labour hope that support for independence itself will fall now that Sturgeon will no longer be leading the charge – and now that Labour are well placed to remove the Conservatives from power at Westminster. However, at 47 per cent, the average level of support for independence in the polls is only a couple of points down on what it was when, during Liz Truss’ disastrous administration, Labour first began to register 20-point leads in the UK-wide polls and looked set to win the next general election.
Meanwhile, although voters’ answers to hypothetical questions should be treated with care, just eight per cent of those who currently support independence say that the prospect of a Labour government at Westminster makes them less likely to continue backing independence.
In any event, three polls of Westminster voting intentions published since Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation do not suggest that her departiure has induced an immediate seismic shift. On average, Labour are up by just a point in these polls while the SNP are down just a point. Such a small movement could simply reflect the random variation to which all polls are subject.
In truth, much now depends on the outcome and fallout from the SNP leadership contest. Perhaps - despite current doubts - the party will find a new charismatic leader who will bring the party together and promote the case for independence effectively. Labour would be wise not to count their chickens just yet…
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