The numbers will be tight today. As I say in The Sun this morning, one minister believes that things are so close that there is a real chance that the Speaker John Bercow may end up having to break a tied vote. Though if the Letwin amendment passes, the vote this afternoon will lose some of its clarity.
It is remarkable that Boris Johnson is so close to getting a majority for his deal despite having lost the support of the DUP. Cabinet Ministers are increasingly optimistic that the government might just pull this off.
When Cabinet met yesterday afternoon, the Chief Whip Spencer ‘scrupulously avoided giving any numbers’, according to one of those present. But the Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, who did the numbers for Boris’s leadership bid, said that the government couldn’t afford to lose more than two or three of the ERG. But with them on board, victory was possible.
Without the DUP’s support, which is gone despite Boris Johnson’s belief that they can still be won round, the government will need the backing of 14 MPs who were elected as Labour in 2017.
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