Will Rishi Sunak stick to his ‘golden rule’?

Here’s the Rishi Sunak paradox: he proudly defines himself as a low-tax Tory but under his watch taxes are reaching a 71-year high. There are plenty of Tories who want to ditch next month’s National Insurance increase but Sunak is firmly opposed – mainly because he wants to link up in people’s minds that more money for the NHS and social care doesn’t manifest out of thin air.

But pressure is on at tomorrow’s spring statement to make clear what kind of Chancellor he really is. Does he come from the long line of Tories who like tax cuts in theory but not in practice – or does he have another agenda?

Sunak’s starting position is that to cut tax, you need to restrain spending. For the Chancellor, it’s a simple point about trade-offs. Splurging first and worrying later is, he thinks, fundamentally unconservative. So he has been dead against deficit-financed tax cuts.