Before the war in Ukraine, ministers and Tory MPs believed a fixed penalty notice for the Prime Minister would mean the end of Boris Johnson. It would result in enough no-confidence letters from Tory MPs to trigger a leadership contest which would run into the summer. There would be a new Prime Minister in time for the party conference in the autumn.
But now the Prime Minister has been told he will be fined by Scotland Yard for attending parties during lockdown, no one is quite so sure. The reason? The circumstances around Johnson are changing.
Until now, stories about lockdown parties in No. 10 had been overshadowed by the Ukrainian crisis. Johnson has also impressed MPs and the party membership with his response. And most importantly, the man tipped to succeed him – his Downing Street neighbour Rishi Sunak – is fighting for his political survival. In a move that has taken many Tory MPs by surprise, the Chancellor, too, is to receive a fine – for being present when Johnson received a birthday cake in Downing Street during lockdown.
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