Will Putin use Belarus to attack Ukraine?

For the past month, Russian soldiers have been gathering in Belarus. Thousands of conscripts are assembling. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia’s war effort goes from bad to worse: Kyiv’s forces are continuing to advance in Kherson. Does Putin think the build-up of forces in Belarus can help him turn the tide in his war?

So far, Belarus’s involvement has been largely passive. The country’s dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko is allowing Russia to pelt Ukraine with missiles from behind its borders. Minsk also provided crucial safe passage to troops attacking the country from the north in February. But, for the most part, it has done its best to try and stay out of the war while attempting to avoid angering Putin.

Now there are signs that things might be changing. Coercing Belarus’s dictator Lukashenko to join Russia’s invasion 2.0 makes strategic sense for Putin’s latest general in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin. Kyiv is easily accessible from Belarus and hard to get to from Russia.