Since the referendum we have seen a steady escalation of the battle between the Commons and the government over Brexit. It will reach new heights in the run up to October 31st – as the new prime minister seeks to negotiate with the EU and maintain his room for manoeuvre by keeping no deal on the table, and those ardently opposed to no deal find more and more creative ways to stop it from happening. The question is: who will win?
Much depends on the way the Commons seeks to prevent no deal, the options available to the prime minister in responding, and crucially, the political cost associated with each option. Backbenchers seeking to wrest control of the Brexit process will try to paint any move they make as justified – no matter how destructive it is, or if it cuts off spending for schools, pensioners, and those reliant on benefits – and the prime minister’s moves as pure villainy.
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