If the Democrats vote with their heads on Super Tuesday — 5 February— Barack Obama will survive the Clinton assault and go on to become the party candidate in November. He already appeals strongly to Independents and Republicans. In Iowa, Obama won 44 per cent of the Republicans who shifted registration to take part in the Democratic caucus, and he won 41 per cent of Independents. Even though he lost in New Hampshire, he beat Clinton there among Independents by ten points. In South Carolina, Independent support is what drove up Obama’s numbers among whites. Furthermore, he does better in polls against every possible Republican opponent than Clinton does. This difference will only grow because even if Hillary Clinton holds off his challenge, she will enter the general election as a diminished figure because of the ugly way in which she has eked out her victory. If Obama defeats Clinton, he will emerge as a battle-hardened candidate who has survived the worst that one of the most formidable political machines ever assembled could throw at him.
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