Jeremy Hunt is giving a speech that is part of the government’s economic relaunch this morning. The Chancellor is going to argue that the ‘declinism’ narrative about Britain is wrong and that ‘the UK is poised to play a leading role in Europe and across the world on the growth sectors which will define this century’. He is trying to switch from his own previously downbeat tone about things getting worse before they get better, in part as a response to the Trussite Tories who are highlighting Britain’s anaemic growth.
The interesting thing about the Truss bunch is that while many Tory MPs dismiss them as ‘deranged’, they then add in the same breath ‘but Liz did have a point about growth, funnily enough’.
The point that Hunt is under a great deal of pressure to make is that the tax burden, currently at a record high, will start to come down under the Tories. ‘We need him to at least set out a direction of travel,’ argues one senior Tory. ‘We’re not expecting sweeping tax cuts, though a few nods here and there wouldn’t go amiss. But the Budget in March needs to set out a clear plan for reducing the tax burden. Currently too many of us don’t believe that Rishi and Jeremy actually care about this.’
The feeling in the party is that the Prime Minister and Chancellor have done very well in their attempts to be boring and calm the markets down – the ongoing rumble of Tory sleaze stories aside. But they feel that ‘boring’ was an emergency response, not a long-term strategy.
If there isn’t some kind of argument for low taxes in the Budget, or indeed in Hunt’s speech, then there’s a problem: backbenchers will start to become even more rebellious (hard to imagine, given Rishi Sunak is only introducing legislation that he knows his party will embrace). This could lead them to try to amend the Finance Bill itself to register their displeasure. That would be the opposite of ‘boring’.
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