Will Hurricane Gustav dent McCain’s hopes?

I’m in Denver airport waiting for what a Republican friend in St Paul has just informed me is likely to be a one- or two-day convention. Even if Hurricane Gustav does not cause the destruction expected, it may yet blow away McCain’s chance of victory. The Republicans are acutely aware that this brings back memory of the Bush administration’s disastrous handling of Hurricane Katrina. Bush and Cheney are the last people the Republicans want on stage, and they have both pulled out. McCain knows he will be judged more by his response to Gustav than what he says in the speech, so even he may not turn up – there’s talk of him speaking by videoconference. FEMA has released its estimate of what’s in the way of the Gustav, now 400 miles away from New Orelans: 5.6 million people, 2 million  buildings and likely to cause $26bn of damage. Barack Obama will get a post-convention bounce, probably eight points or so.