Will Ethiopia’s capital fall?

There have been stunning developments recently in Ethiopia’s grinding conflict between the national government and Tigrayan rebels in the north.

Last November, the news was all about the government’s invasion of the Tigray region by federal forces. When the government claimed victory after capturing the regional capital Mekelle, Tigray was firmly on the ropes and the leadership of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) were being arrested or fleeing into the mountains. By June this year, Tigrayan forces regained control of the region. In doing so the rebels displayed their tenacious streak. But few envisaged what’s happening now.

Ethiopia’s cabinet has now declared a national state of emergency. Its citizens are being told to defend the capital, the rough jewel that is Addis Ababa, with advancing fighters from Tigray closing in on the city. It’s an amazing reversal of fortunes and a strange redux of history, echoing events in 1991 when Tigrayan forces led the revolutionary army that advanced on Addis to successfully overthrew the country’s military dictatorship.