Following the evidence for hospital admissions

The recent warnings of exponential growth of Covid-19 cases, inevitably followed by a rise in hospital admissions, is one focus of the Government’s Covid messaging. Jeremy Hunt described this spike in admissions as a ‘wake-up call’ for the Government. But while this year the disease is newly identified, warnings of a winter crisis in the NHS occur annually. So should we be worried?

For 20 years, ‘influenza’ has been blamed for putting hospitals under pressure in winter. Now, this fear has been substituted by ‘Covid’. Yet both are one-track, one-pathogen scenarios, which ignores the reality that there are scores of different pathogens that cause respiratory infections across a community at different times of the year. As a consequence, cases of respiratory disease fluctuate throughout the year and so do related hospital admissions and, unfortunately, deaths. This is what gives rise to the seasonal effect where more people die in the winter compared to the summer.