In the run-up to last year’s referendum, some grave-faced pundits predicted that Brexit would prompt a mass exodus of bankers from London to Frankfurt. Nonsense, said the Leavers. Everything will be fine. As with almost every aspect of the campaign, there was virtually no common ground. Depending on which side you listened to, either the Square Mile would become a wasteland or Brexit would make no difference whatsoever. So, fifteen months later, who should we believe? I’ve been talking to German bankers and it’s no surprise to find that the word on Threadneedle Street is a lot more nuanced. Project Fear wasn’t entirely fanciful, they tell me, but the timescale was all wrong.
There will be a drift from London to the Continent, my sources say, but it’ll be a gradual process – taking years (or even decades) to play out.
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