Will a high turnout benefit Jeremy Corbyn tomorrow?

Turnout in the Labour leadership contest is going to be one of the key factors in deciding who wins. The result of the London Mayoral contest suggests that the tens of thousands who’ve joined the party as members or registered supporters have, as expected, flocked in an anti-establishment direction — which has clearly benefited Sadiq Khan and points towards a Corbyn victory.

Rumours are circulating that the turnout in the leadership is varying significantly between the various parts of the electorate. Coffee House understands that the leadership campaigns are expecting the turnout among trade union affiliates to be low, possibly close to 30 per cent, while the turnout among the membership is expected to be high — around 80 per cent for members and 90 per cent for registered supporters. The Sun’s Steve Hawkes has said he understands the selectorate to be around 340,000:

Sources claim there are likely to be around 340,000 votes cast in Labour leadership election – low turnout among union members

— Steve Hawkes (@steve_hawkes) September