Why YouGov’s MRP poll will worry the Conservatives

When the 2017 snap election result came through, it proved a shock to many who had been covering the campaign in depth. The bulk of the polls had suggested Theresa May was on course for a comfortable majority. However, there was one poll that had predicted a hung parliament – YouGov’s MRP model. This poll of 100,000 people uses a different method than normal – with predictions focussed on small geographic areas based on a mix of data and demographic.

In 2017, it suggested the Tories were on course to lose 20 seats. Tonight’s poll paints a different picture – it suggests the Tories are on course for a large majority in the region of 68. The YouGov/Times poll says in an election held today, the Conservatives would win 359 seats, Labour 211, the SNP 43 and the Lib Dems 13. While this would mean a majority of 68 for the Tories, it would be less good news for Labour – counting as its second-worst post war defeat.