Why Westminster is wrong about gilt yields

It’s gilts season at Westminster. This is one of those unpredictable events, like the passing of a comet, that sees the residents of the political village staring at the skies and imputing all sorts of divine causes to the curious flashing lights they see there.  

Because of the ongoing excitement in the markets, a lot of political folk have, in the last few days, become authoritative commentators on yield curves.

Welcome to the party, guys. A very long time ago, I covered bond markets for a City newswire, and hated pretty much every minute of it. I claim no particular expertise as a result, but I am still confident in saying two things about Westminster’s current excitement over gilt yields.

First, almost no one involved in or commenting on British politics (I include myself) knows enough about bonds to offer a wholly credible analysis of any particular market movement.

Second, and consequently, anyone who asserts that rising gilt yields are entirely caused of Rachel Reeves and her Budget should be ignored because they a) don’t know what they’re talking about b) are pushing a political agenda c) both of the above.