Why we should consider testing Covid on prisoners

The Covid problem lies as much in the delayed action of the virus as in the virus itself. Since symptoms emerge only days after infection, testing often comes too late to reveal how transmission occurs, and often too late to prevent onward transmission, since many people may be most contagious before symptoms appear. This delay makes the targeting of restrictions far more complex — like weather-forecasting in reverse. (For this reason, what we may have to fear most from bioterrorism is not pathogens that are most deadly but those with delayed action.)

If Covid had immediate effects (your hair instantly turned purple) we might have cracked the problem by now. Yet we still don’t know, say, whether the size of the initial dose affects the severity of the disease. What causes superspreading events — is it the location or the person? Are some people largely insusceptible? One serious theory suggests the internal shape of your nose may have a bearing on the outcome. It all falls within that area of human knowledge where science falls short: you neither have quite enough information, nor can you ethically perform experiments to fill gaps in your knowledge.

If Covid had immediate effects (your hair instantly turned purple) we might have cracked the problem by now

This was not so difficult in 1721. Charles Maitland, a Scottish surgeon, received a Royal Licence to conduct an experimental inoculation, or ‘variolation’, on six subjects, who were exposed to a small dose of smallpox. All were inmates of Newgate prison, and were granted a full pardon in the event that they survived. All six did. Later, one was deliberately exposed to smallpox. He was immune.