Donald Trump has won his third presidential election and across Europe heads are exploding. This should not be the case. Many European leaders were briefed earlier this year that a Trump victory was more likely than not. But wishful thinking appears to have defeated grim experience in many minds and many civil service buildings.
To hear the Europeans tell it, they are now confronted with a unique threat. The last time Trump was in office, Ukraine had been fighting Russia since 2014, but its survival was not hanging by a thread. It was not seriously likely that Russia would invade Moldova, Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, as now seems possible. Finland and Sweden were not Nato members, and could not therefore serve as the place Russia might deniably invade with mercenaries, or strike with missiles, in order to test the limits of Nato’s security guarantees. Now these things are planned for and, by the most depressive security officials, miserably awaited.
With all this at stake, European leaders are talking a big game.
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