Why Wales decided to forgive the Tories

The recent Welsh poll showing a ten-point Conservative lead in voting intentions for the forthcoming general election (and also, though much less reported, the first ever Conservative lead in devolved voting intentions in Wales), came as a shock to many. The next Welsh poll, out next week, will tell us whether this first one was just an outlier or the more solid harbinger of an historic realignment in Welsh politics. But why should it be such a surprise that the governing party of the UK, with around a twenty-point opinion poll lead across Britain, should have a lead half that size in one particular part of Britain? The astonishment is that the Conservatives winning in Wales offends many deeply-held and cherished myths and assumptions. The Welsh just don’t do Conservatism, surely? These mindsets have very deep roots. The Welsh Tories have underperformed in elections for many years. The last general election in which the Conservatives won in Wales came in the 50s – the 1850s.